Lai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent
On 13 January 2024 Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim won Taiwan’s presidency with 5,586,019 votes, 40.05 percent, ahead of Hou Yu-ih at 33.49 percent and Ko Wen-je at 26.46 percent, on 71.86 percent turnout. In the causal graph this event strengthens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — an improving welfare path.
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On 13 January 2024 Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim won Taiwan’s presidency with 5,586,019 votes, 40.05 percent, ahead of Hou Yu-ih at 33.49 percent and Ko Wen-je at 26.46 percent, on 71.86 percent turnout. It was the DPP’s third consecutive presidential term, the first such streak since direct elections. A 40 percent plurality is not a majority. The LY result that night is a neighbouring split.
Context
He was vice president. Neighbouring 1 February LY convening is the split child. He did not sit as CEC.
1 February 2024 LY split is the neighbouring legislative certificate. 20 May 2024 oath is the child start.
The president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is head of state under the Additional Articles and commander-in-chief. He does not write a PLA communique, a TSMC capex print, or a Legislative Yuan majority. A National Day address is not a completed interceptor. An inaugural line is not a PLA missile. A special-act press conference is not a passed statute. William Lai is a common English name for the same person; the stored English name is Lai Ching-te.
Why it matters
The path is democratic resilience: a completed certified presidential contest under PRC pressure.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Lai Ching-te
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.6 · verified
Voters and CEC certified. He was the DPP nominee and sitting vice president. Hou and Ko conceded.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactLai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent
- strengthensDriverDemocratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.7 · Effect from 13 January 2024 · verified
A completed certified presidential contest under external pressure is dated rotation.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.49 (weight 0.7 × strength 0.7)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.32 (weight 0.7 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.32 (weight 0.7 × strength 0.45)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
- FactLai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent
- strengthensDriverPolitical Polarization
- weakensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 13 January 2024 · verified
A three-way 40 percent plurality polarised the coming divided government.
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.45)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Taiwan voters give Lai a third DPP presidential term, DPP loses LY majorityReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.Central Election Commission — 2024 presidential and vice-presidential election resultsCentral Election Commission Taiwan · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
Central Election Commission Taiwan carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.
Established: 13 January 2024 CEC result, independently reported; 40.05 percent.
Not established: a unique later T-Dome coefficient from that Saturday, or that a majority uniquely formed that night.
He was the DPP nominee and sitting vice president. Hou and Ko conceded.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Lai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent, not a later speech about Lai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to Voters and CEC certified. Hou and Ko conceded. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorLai Ching-te
- contributed toFactLai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent
- strengthensDrivers (2)Democratic Resilience
- strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Lai Ching-te wins the 2024 presidential election with 40.05 percent. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/tw-lai-elected-2024
https://factrail.ai/facts/tw-lai-elected-2024
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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