The ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum
On 3 November 2021 ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan announced that the Venezuela I preliminary examination had closed with a decision to investigate alleged crimes since at least April 2017, and signed a memorandum of understanding in Caracas. In the causal graph this event strengthens Judicial independence erosion (court capture), a driver that strengthens Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score — a worsening welfare path.
Read the full account
On 3 November 2021 ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan announced that the Venezuela I preliminary examination had closed with a decision to investigate alleged crimes since at least April 2017, and signed a memorandum of understanding in Caracas. Venezuela later sought deferral; Pre-Trial Chamber I authorised resumption on 27 June 2023. An investigation is not a conviction. He did not write the Pre-Trial decision.
Context
2017 protest findings sat as parent. Neighbouring OHCHR files are neighbours. He did not sit as the Prosecutor.
2017 protests are a parent. 2023 Pre-Trial resumption is a child. 2024 repression is a later neighbour.
The President of Venezuela heads the national executive, commands FANB as commander-in-chief, appoints the cabinet, and can request enabling laws. He does not write an OFAC designation, an ICC Pre-Trial Chamber decision, or a Colombian migration statute. A CNE announcement is not an opposition acta and is not a Carter Center finding. Those three statuses stay on separate rows. An ICC investigation is not a conviction. An IMF figure is labelled as an estimate where BCV stopped publishing. Sanctions after 2017 and 2019 are an external causal factor; they do not erase the pre-2017 PDVSA-and-policy collapse.
Why it matters
The path is justice: a completed ICC investigation opening, remaining complementarity fights and the 2023 resumption as children, not a unique guilt finding.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Nicolás Maduro
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.5 · verified
The Prosecutor opened the docket. Referring states had sent the situation. He hosted the MoU. Pre-Trial judges later wrote a resumption decision he did not author.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactThe ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum
- strengthensDriverJudicial independence erosion (court capture)
- strengthensIndicators (4)Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
impact weight 0.55 · Effect from 3 November 2021 · verified
A completed ICC investigation opening is a dated finding that domestic process was not treated as a bar.
- Worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.4 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.72)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.39 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.7)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.38 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.69)
Observed
0.62 score from 0 to 1 · 0.25 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.37 score from 0 to 1 to 0.62 score from 0 to 1.
Above normal = better
All indicators on this path (4)
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.17 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.3)
Observed
42.5 index score (0-100) · 7.53 below the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
- FactThe ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum
- weakensDriverHumanitarian Access
- strengthensIndicatorPeople Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 3 November 2021 · verified
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.17 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.5)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — ICC prosecutor opens Venezuela probe and signs cooperation dealReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.ICC — Prosecutor opens an investigation into the situation in Venezuela I, 3–5 November 2021International Criminal Court · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
International Criminal Court carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.
Established: 3 November 2021 decision to investigate Venezuela I, independently reported. Later 27 June 2023 Pre-Trial resumption is a child.
Not established: a completed conviction, or that every 2017 death was thereby adjudicated that Wednesday.
Referring states had sent the situation. He hosted the MoU. Pre-Trial judges later wrote a resumption decision he did not author.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies The ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum, not a later speech about The ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to The Prosecutor opened the docket. Referring states had sent the situation. He hosted the MoU. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorNicolás Maduro
- contributed toFactThe ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum
- strengthensDrivers (2)Judicial independence erosion (court capture)
- strengthensIndicatorRule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). The ICC Prosecutor opens the Venezuela I investigation and signs a Caracas memorandum. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/ve-icc-2021
https://factrail.ai/facts/ve-icc-2021
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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