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Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is a post-2013 military presidency: 3 July 2013 ouster of Mohamed Morsi, the 14 August 2013 Rab’a dispersal HRW documented as at least 817 identified dead, a 2019 term reset toward 2030, then 89.6 percent in 2023 — not a Suez brochure. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “NEA declares Sisi winner with 89.6 percent; no serious challenger on the ballot” (2023).

Top harm

NEA declares Sisi winner with 89.6 percent; no serious challenger on the ballot

−188 pts

Military-backed presidential ruleanti-Brotherhood securityclosed electoral certification

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on three clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, the 2013 file. He announced Morsi’s removal on 3 July as defence minister. On 14 August security forces cleared Rab’a. HRW identified 817 dead at that square and said more than 1,000 is more likely; it named Sisi in the chain of command. NCHR printed 624 civilians. Beblawy later said “close to 1,000” for Rab’a and al-Nahda. This page quotes those instruments. It does not invent a unique size. It is not stored as an ICC conviction.

Second, the clock. The April 2019 referendum, as the NEA recorded, approved six-year terms, extended his then-current term, and allowed a further run toward 2030. 88.8 percent yes; 44.3 percent turnout.

Third, closed certifications. 89.6 percent on 18 December 2023 against no serious challenger. Ahmed al-Tantawy dropped after alleging obstruction. He is unresolved.

Confidence is high on the ouster date, HRW’s identified 817, the NEA percentages, and 2026 incumbency, and medium where 595–1,000+ sits between morgues. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2013–2023).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonAbdel Fattah el-Sisi
  2. FactNEA declares Sisi winner with 89.6 percent; no serious challenger on the ballot
  3. DriverSisi post-2013 military presidency
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−188 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAbdel Fattah el-Sisi
  2. FactReferendum approves amendments resetting Sisi’s term clock toward 2030
  3. DriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
  4. IndicatorVoice and Accountability Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−39 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact −1 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator 0.51 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 18 December 2023 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    NEA declares Sisi winner with 89.6 percent; no serious challenger on the ballot
    −188 pts

  2. 23 April 2019 · Sisi post-2013 military presidency

    Referendum approves amendments resetting Sisi’s term clock toward 2030
    −39 pts

  3. 14 August 2013 · Sisi post-2013 military presidency

    Security forces clear the Rab’a sit-in; HRW identifies 817 dead

  4. 3 July 2013 · Sisi post-2013 military presidency

    Defence Minister Sisi announces the removal of President Mohamed Morsi

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

4 of 4 linked facts verified, drawing on 4 distinct sources (2013–2023).

Sources include Cairo 24 (recording the Official Gazette), Ahram Online, Reuters (recording official and EIPR figures), BBC News.

Sources

  1. 1.Cairo 24 — Official Gazette publishes NEA Decision 39 of 2023: 39,702,451 votes (89.6 percent)Cairo 24 (recording the Official Gazette)
  2. 2.Ahram Online — House of Representatives passes constitutional amendments, 16 April 2019Ahram Online
  3. 3.Reuters — Official accounts recorded 618 civilians at Rab’a; rights groups call for accountability, 14 August 2023Reuters (recording official and EIPR figures)
  4. 4.BBC — Army ousts Egypt’s President Morsi, 3 July 2013BBC News

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 4

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been president of Egypt since 8 June 2014, after de facto security command from 3 July 2013 as defence minister. He remains supreme commander. He does not write an HRW chapter. He did sit at the top of the 2013 security chain HRW named.

The ouster file is dated. On 3 July 2013 he announced Morsi’s removal on television (BBC (opens in a new tab)). Morsi is named. He is not minted.

The force file is an HRW product. On 14 August 2013 police and army cleared Rab’a. HRW identified 817 dead at that square and said the true total is more likely at least 1,000 (All According to Plan (opens in a new tab)). It named then-Defence Minister Sisi in the chain of command. NCHR printed 624 civilians. Official Health Ministry counts sat lower. Beblawy later said “close to 1,000” for Rab’a and al-Nahda. This page stores the disagreement.

The clock file is official. The National Election Authority recorded 88.8 percent yes and 44.3 percent turnout on the April 2019 amendments that extend terms to six years and allow a further run toward 2030 (BBC (opens in a new tab)).

The ballot file is official. NEA Decision 39 of 2023, as published in the Official Gazette, declared 39,702,451 votes (89.6 percent) on 18 December 2023 after the 10–12 December poll, turnout 66.8 percent (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Ahmed al-Tantawy is unresolved.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. A Suez expansion, Takaful transfers, and a New Administrative Capital are neighbouring files. They are not a rebate of 14 August 2013.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He announced the ouster. HRW named him in the Rab’a chain of command. He ran and was certified in 2014, 2018, and 2023. The Interior Ministry executed. NEA tabulated. Sharing execution is not a reason to drop 14 August 2013. It is a reason not to invent a unique death total as Contribution.size.

Causal chain through facts

The 2013 ouster and Rab’a strengthen the owned military-presidency driver and weaken civic space. The 2019 reset and 2023 89.6 percent return strengthen the owned driver and weaken electoral integrity. They do not hang on ukraine-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression. Morsi and Tantawy remain names, not minted pages.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact Rab’a census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments are a military ouster, a mass killing HRW recorded, a term-clock reset, and a 89.6 percent return. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

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