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Evo Morales

Evo Morales

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is a parallel machine: the 2016 referendum he lost, TCP 0084/2017 that set aside term limits, the 2019 count OAS would not validate, and the 2024–25 extra-party vehicle against Arce. A living former ruler is scored on those instruments, not as an indigenous-democrat sticker. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Morales resigns after the 2019 count OAS would not validate” (2019).

Top harm

Morales resigns after the 2019 count OAS would not validate

−120 pts

MAS-IPSP cocalero socialismterm-limit override as human-rights claimparallel party machine after 2019

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on term-limit override and 2019, not on a personality adjective.

First, a referendum. On 21 February 2016 voters rejected a further consecutive term, 51.3% to 48.7%. OAS observed. That is a completed popular instrument.

Second, a court override. On 28 November 2017 TCP 0084/2017 set aside term limits citing the American Convention. That is the parent of the 2019 fourth-term ticket. The 2016 NO is not erased by a human-rights caption.

Third, 2019. On 20 October TREP stopped. OAS’s December integrity analysis recorded hidden servers and operations it said made results impossible to validate. CEPR later contested the statistical jump. Store both. On 10 November he resigned; Wikipedia stores the office as ending 12 November. Deaths in the unrest are contested.

Fourth, a parallel machine. In November 2024 the TCP recognised Grover García and barred Morales. On 31 March 2025 he founded EVO Pueblo. Blockades and a statutory-rape investigation sit as neighbouring allegation and protest weather. They are not a completed conviction.

Confidence is high on OAS/TSE/TCP dates and same-week wires, and medium where 2019 deaths sit between IACHR and later compilations. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2016–2025).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonEvo Morales
  2. FactMorales resigns after the 2019 count OAS would not validate
  3. DriverMorales parallel MAS
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−120 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.48 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonEvo Morales
  2. FactMorales assumes the presidency of EVO Pueblo as a parallel party vehicle
  3. DriverMorales parallel MAS
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−101 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.48 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 31 March 2025 · Morales parallel MAS

    Morales assumes the presidency of EVO Pueblo as a parallel party vehicle
    −101 pts

  2. 14 November 2024 · Political Polarization

    TCP recognises Grover García as MAS president and bars Morales on term limits
    −101 pts

  3. 10 November 2019 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    Morales resigns after the 2019 count OAS would not validate
    −120 pts

  4. 28 November 2017 · Morales parallel MAS

    TCP 0084/2017 sets aside term limits citing the American Convention

  5. 21 February 2016 · Morales parallel MAS

    Voters reject amending Article 168 so Morales could run again

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

5 of 5 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2016–2025).

Sources include Órgano Electoral Plurinacional of Bolivia, Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional of Bolivia, Organization of American States.

Sources

  1. 1.Órgano Electoral Plurinacional — 17 August 2025 general-election result neighbourhoodÓrgano Electoral Plurinacional of Bolivia
  2. 2.Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional — November 2024 MAS-IPSP leadership neighbourhoodTribunal Constitucional Plurinacional of Bolivia
  3. 3.OAS — Final Report, Analysis of Electoral Integrity, Bolivia 2019Organization of American States

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Evo Morales was president of Bolivia from 22 January 2006 to 12 November 2019. As of September 2026 he is a living former president and leads EVO Pueblo. Luis Arce is the live counterpart on the fracture neighbourhood. This run does not mint an Arce twin.

He is not an indigenous-democrat saint. On 21 February 2016 Bolivians rejected amending Article 168 so that president and vice-president could be re-elected twice consecutively. Valid votes: 2,682,517 NO (51.30%) and 2,546,135 YES (48.70%). OAS observed (OAS 2016 EOM (opens in a new tab)).

On 28 November 2017 the TCP sitting en banc issued judgment 0084/2017 setting aside term limits for president, vice-president, governor, mayor and councillor, citing the American Convention on Human Rights. OAS later recorded that judgment as the legal parent of the 2019 ticket (OAS 2019 preliminary (opens in a new tab)). The 2016 NO is not erased by a human-rights caption.

On 20 October 2019 he stood for a fourth term. TREP stopped. OAS’s December 2019 electoral-integrity analysis recorded hidden servers and operations it said made results impossible to validate (OAS Final Report (opens in a new tab)). CEPR later contested the statistical jump. Store both. On 10 November he resigned after police and military withdrew support (BBC, 10 November 2019 (opens in a new tab)). Wikipedia stores the office as ending 12 November. Deaths in the unrest are contested across IACHR, government, and later compilations.

In November 2024 the TCP recognised Grover García as MAS president and barred Morales on term limits (Infobae, 14 November 2024 (opens in a new tab); Reuters, 8 November 2024 (opens in a new tab)). He called lawfare. Quote the court.

On 31 March 2025 he assumed the presidency of EVO Pueblo as a parallel vehicle. Extra-party attempts including Pan-Bol were blocked by TSE. A statutory-rape investigation and 2026 protest warrants sit as neighbouring allegation and protest weather. They are not a completed conviction.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. 2006–14 hydrocarbon-tax and poverty-reduction prints are neighbouring historical series. The 2009 constitution is a completed statute. They do not rebate 10 November 2019.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He was president and MAS leader. TCP magistrates wrote 0084/2017. TSE counted. OAS audited. Sharing a MAS brand with Arce is not a reason to drop Morales-dated rows. It is a reason not to mint Arce again. Sharing an ALBA neighbourhood with Maduro is not a reason to hang Venezuelan CNE nights as his.

Causal chain through facts

21 February 2016 weakens electoral integrity as a completed NO that was later overridden. 28 November 2017 weakens capacity for peaceful transfer. 10 November 2019 strengthens polarisation and the parallel-machine file. 14 November 2024 strengthens the parallel machine as a completed extra-party split. None hang on territorial-revisionism, ukraine-war, or Soviet-scope rows.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact number. Direction is negative on term-limit override and 2019. Álvaro García Linera, Jeanine Áñez, and Grover García remain names on this file, not invented biographies.

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