Skip to content
Luis Arce

Luis Arce

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is the MAS fracture: the 26 June 2024 palace hour, the November 2024 TCP that recognised an Arce-allied MAS leadership, the 2025 first-round collapse amid fuel and dollar shortages, and a December 2025 Fondioc arrest that is not a completed conviction. A living former ruler is scored on those instruments, not as a 2020 recovery sticker. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “MAS collapses in the 17 August 2025 first round after Arce’s May withdrawal” (2025).

Top harm

MAS collapses in the 17 August 2025 first round after Arce’s May withdrawal

−162 pts

MAS-IPSP state-led economyArce–Morales party splitfuel-and-dollar shortage treated as compatible with a 2020 mandate

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

2 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on the MAS split and the fuel-dollar file, not on a personality adjective.

First, a contested palace hour. On 26 June 2024 Zúñiga’s units rammed the presidential palace. Arce called it a coup, appointed new commanders, and Zúñiga was arrested the same evening. Zúñiga told reporters, without offering evidence, that Arce had asked him to stage a show of force. AP recorded both. Store both.

Second, a party takeover. In November 2024 the TCP validated the El Alto MAS congress and recognised Grover García, an Arce ally, as party president. Morales’s Lauca Ñ congress was not the recognised instrument. Reuters recorded the same month’s term-limit bar on Morales. Morales called lawfare. Quote the court.

Third, a first-round wipeout amid shortages. On 14 May 2025 Arce said he would not run. On 17 August MAS with del Castillo took a few percent and two deputy seats. Paz and Quiroga went to a runoff. Paz took the oath on 8 November 2025. That handover is a completed transfer. It does not rebate the queues. BCB reserve prints and INE inflation are neighbouring series. This page does not invent a unique CPI as Contribution.size.

Fourth, a post-office arrest. On 10 December 2025 police detained him on Fondioc-era allegations from the economy-minister years. On 12 December a judge ordered five months’ pre-trial detention. He denied wrongdoing. The $700 million figure is an allegation. It is not a completed conviction.

Confidence is high on Reuters/AP same-week wires and TSE/TCP dates, and medium where parallel-market premia sit between BCB and informal prints. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2024–2025).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonLuis Arce
  2. FactMAS collapses in the 17 August 2025 first round after Arce’s May withdrawal
  3. DriverArce–MAS fracture
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−162 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.64 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonLuis Arce
  2. FactPolice detain Arce on Fondioc-era embezzlement allegations; a judge orders five months’ pre-trial detention
  3. DriverArce–MAS fracture
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−162 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.64 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 10 December 2025 · Political Polarization

    Police detain Arce on Fondioc-era embezzlement allegations; a judge orders five months’ pre-trial detention
    −162 pts

  2. 8 November 2025 · Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power

    Arce leaves office as Rodrigo Paz is sworn after the 2025 runoff
    −24 pts

  3. 17 August 2025 · Political Polarization

    MAS collapses in the 17 August 2025 first round after Arce’s May withdrawal
    −162 pts

  4. 14 November 2024 · Arce–MAS fracture

    TCP validates the El Alto MAS congress and recognises Grover García as party president
    −162 pts

  5. 26 June 2024 · Arce–MAS fracture

    Zúñiga’s units ram the presidential palace; Arce calls a coup and the general is arrested
    −162 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

5 of 5 linked facts verified, drawing on 4 distinct sources (2024–2025).

Sources include Ministerio Público of Bolivia, Órgano Electoral Plurinacional of Bolivia, Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional of Bolivia, Presidency of the Plurinational State of Bolivia.

Sources

  1. 1.Órgano Electoral Plurinacional — 17 August 2025 general-election result neighbourhoodÓrgano Electoral Plurinacional of Bolivia
  2. 2.Attorney General of Bolivia — December 2025 Fondioc investigation neighbourhoodMinisterio Público of Bolivia
  3. 3.Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional — November 2024 MAS-IPSP leadership neighbourhoodTribunal Constitucional Plurinacional of Bolivia
  4. 4.Presidency of Bolivia — 26 June 2024 commander-in-chief neighbourhood of the Plaza Murillo hourPresidency of the Plurinational State of Bolivia

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 4

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Luis Arce was president of Bolivia from 8 November 2020 to 8 November 2025. As of September 2026 he is a living former president. Evo Morales is named as an unresolved person candidate. This run does not mint a page for him.

He is not a 2020 recovery saint. On 26 June 2024 army units led by General Juan José Zúñiga rammed the Casa Grande del Pueblo. Arce called it an attempted coup and appointed José Wilson Sánchez as army commander. Zúñiga was arrested the same evening. Before the arrest he told reporters, without offering evidence, that Arce had asked him on Sunday to “raise something up” to boost popularity (Reuters, 26 June 2024 (opens in a new tab); AP (opens in a new tab)). Interior minister Eduardo del Castillo said injuries proved it was not a drill. Store the ram, the arrest, and the unevidenced claim. Zúñiga remains unresolved.

On 14 November 2024 the TCP’s Fourth Chamber validated the El Alto MAS congress of 3–5 May 2024 and recognised Grover García as party president, displacing Morales (Infobae, 14 November 2024 (opens in a new tab)). Reuters had already recorded the court’s term-limit bar on Morales that month (Reuters, 8 November 2024 (opens in a new tab)). Morales called lawfare. Quote the court.

Fuel and dollars sat as parent weather. Gas exports fell. BCB liquid reserves dried. Parallel premia and fuel queues ran from 2023 into 2025. INE later printed inflation far above the early-Arce years. Quote BCB/INE. Crisis Group recorded that MAS factionalism blocked credits in the Assembly (Crisis Group (opens in a new tab)).

On 14 May 2025 Arce said he would not seek re-election. The TCP the same day upheld the Morales bar (Reuters, 14 May 2025 (opens in a new tab)). MAS ran Eduardo del Castillo. On 17 August 2025 the first round collapsed the ticket to a few percent and two deputy seats. Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga went to a 19 October runoff. Paz won (Reuters, 19 October 2025 (opens in a new tab)).

On 10 December 2025, a month after leaving office, police detained him on Fondioc-era embezzlement allegations from the economy-minister years. On 12 December a judge ordered five months’ pre-trial detention in San Pedro. He denied wrongdoing and called it political. Attorney General Roger Mariaca said the alleged acts sat in the minister years, not the presidency. Paz officials alleged about $700 million diverted. Quote AP/Reuters. That integer is an allegation. It is not a completed conviction (Reuters, 10 December 2025 (opens in a new tab); AP, 12 December 2025 (opens in a new tab)).

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. The 8 November 2020 oath followed a competitive 2020 contest. The 8 November 2025 handover to Rodrigo Paz is a completed constitutional transfer after a runoff. Early-term COVID vaccination contracts are neighbouring public-health instruments. They do not rebate 17 August 2025.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He was president and commander-in-chief on 26 June 2024. TCP magistrates wrote the MAS and term-limit texts. TSE counted. Paz officials alleged Fondioc figures. Sharing a MAS brand with Morales is not a reason to drop Arce-dated rows. It is a reason not to mint Morales here. Sharing a recognition neighbourhood with Maduro is not a reason to hang Venezuelan CNE nights as his.

Causal chain through facts

26 June 2024 strengthens polarisation and the MAS-fracture file. 14 November 2024 strengthens the fracture as a completed TCP instrument. 17 August 2025 strengthens the fracture as a completed first-round collapse. 8 November 2025 strengthens capacity for peaceful transfer. 10 December 2025 strengthens polarisation as a completed arrest that is not a conviction. None hang on territorial-revisionism, ukraine-war, or Soviet-scope rows.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact number. Direction is negative on the fracture and shortage cluster. A completed handover is a separate plus path. Evo Morales, Rodrigo Paz, Juan José Zúñiga, Grover García, and Eduardo del Castillo remain names on this file, not invented biographies.

Dispute a fact on this pageNamed here, or represent someone who is? Request a right of reply.