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Félix Tshisekedi

Félix Tshisekedi

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is Kinshasa’s second-term file: état de siège in North Kivu and Ituri, a 73.34 percent 2023 CENI return the Carter Center said fell short of key commitments, then Goma’s fall as recited in S/RES/2773 — not a donor-stability poster. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “CENI declares Tshisekedi winner with 73.34 percent; Carter Center records tabulation shortfalls” (2023).

Top harm

CENI declares Tshisekedi winner with 73.34 percent; Carter Center records tabulation shortfalls

−53 pts

UDPS presidential majoritymilitarised eastern governanceclosed electoral certification against M23/RDF

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on three clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, martial substitution. On 3 May 2021 he proclaimed a 30-day état de siège in Ituri and North Kivu, replacing civilian provincial authorities with FARDC and police officers and substituting military courts for civilian ones. HRW later recorded that military rulers used those powers against peaceful critics. This page does not invent a unique siege-death integer.

Second, a closed certification. CENI declared 73.34 percent on 31 December 2023. The Court confirmed 73.47 percent on 9 January 2024. The Carter Center’s final report recorded that tabulation ran from electronic voting devices at CENI headquarters rather than from polling-station results at constituency level as the legal framework specified, and that the process fell short of some key international commitments. Moïse Katumbi and Martin Fayulu rejected the return. They are unresolved.

Third, Goma. S/RES/2773 (21 February 2025) recites M23 control of Goma on 28 January 2025 with RDF support. He is commander-in-chief. RDF support is Kagame’s file. Losing the provincial capital is Kinshasa’s dated failure to protect. Troop and displacement estimates are contested. This page does not invent them.

Confidence is high on the ordinance, the CENI percentage, and 2773’s Goma recital, and medium where HRW case counts and IDMC stocks sit beside those instruments. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2021–2025).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonFélix Tshisekedi
  2. FactCENI declares Tshisekedi winner with 73.34 percent; Carter Center records tabulation shortfalls
  3. DriverElectoral Integrity and Competitiveness
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−53 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact −1 · Driver weight 0.55 · Driver → indicator 0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonFélix Tshisekedi
  2. FactTshisekedi proclaims état de siège in Ituri and North Kivu, replacing civilian authority
  3. DriverCivic Space
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−50 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact −1 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator 0.75 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 28 January 2025 · Eastern DRC / M23–RDF (Great Lakes)

    Goma falls to M23; S/RES/2773 recites M23/RDF control
    −50 pts

  2. 31 December 2023 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    CENI declares Tshisekedi winner with 73.34 percent; Carter Center records tabulation shortfalls
    −53 pts

  3. 3 May 2021 · Eastern DRC / M23–RDF (Great Lakes)

    Tshisekedi proclaims état de siège in Ituri and North Kivu, replacing civilian authority
    −50 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2021–2025).

Sources include UN Security Council, Agence Congolaise de Presse.

Sources

  1. 1.UN Security Council resolution 2773 (2025), 21 February 2025UN Security Council
  2. 2.ACP — CENI proclaims Tshisekedi winner with 13,215,366 votes (73.34 percent), 31 December 2023Agence Congolaise de Presse
  3. 3.ACP — Tshisekedi proclaims a 30-day état de siège in Ituri and North Kivu, 4 May 2021Agence Congolaise de Presse

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Félix Tshisekedi has been president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 24 January 2019. He remains commander-in-chief. He does not write S/RES/2773. He does command the FARDC that failed to hold Goma.

The siege file is official. On 3 May 2021 he proclaimed a 30-day état de siège in Ituri and North Kivu, in force from 6 May, replacing civilian authorities with military and police officers and substituting military courts (ACP (opens in a new tab)). Successive 15-day prorogations followed. Human Rights Watch on 22 March 2022 recorded that military rulers used those powers to suppress peaceful critics. This page does not invent a unique integer from that briefing.

The ballot file is official. CENI president Denis Kadima declared him provisionally elected on 31 December 2023 with 13,215,366 votes, 73.34 percent, after the 20 December poll (ACP (opens in a new tab); Reuters (opens in a new tab)). The Constitutional Court confirmed 73.47 percent on 9 January 2024. The Carter Center recorded that tabulation deviated from constituency-level legal procedure and that the process fell short of some key international commitments. Katumbi and Fayulu are named. They are not minted.

The Goma file is a Council recital. S/RES/2773 (21 February 2025) records M23 control of Goma on 28 January 2025 with RDF support (S/RES/2773 (opens in a new tab)). Reuters recorded M23 control of the airport the same day. Paul Kagame is the live counterpart on RDF support. This page does not write that Tshisekedi authored RDF support. It records that Goma fell under his command. Displacement stocks are contested. This page does not invent a “7 million” size.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. The 2019 accession after Kabila is a neighbouring 24 January instrument. It is not a rebate of Goma. Mining contracts are neighbouring files.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He proclaimed the siege. He ran and was certified in 2023. He commands the FARDC. CENI tabulated. The Court wrote. M23 executed in the field. The Security Council wrote 2773. Sharing execution with M23 and RDF is not a reason to drop 28 January 2025 from Kinshasa’s command file. It is a reason not to invent a unique civilian death total as Contribution.size. Sultani Makenga remains an unresolved mention.

Causal chain through facts

The 2021 état de siège weakens civic space. The 2023 CENI return weakens electoral integrity. He connects to those mechanisms only through dated facts, not as a tag on a personality.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact displacement census. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments substitute military rule, close certification, and record the fall of North Kivu’s capital. A later verified recapture of Goma, a genuine contest, or a measured series that can be argued as a consequence of these instruments would be a different fact with a different date. Sultani Makenga, Corneille Nangaa, Moïse Katumbi, and Martin Fayulu remain names on this file, not invented biographies.

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