Net harmfulFormula-derived score
The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Cabinet adopts a National Security Strategy and a 2-percent-of-GDP defence path” (2022). The largest positive offset is “Japan begins discharging treated water from Fukushima Daiichi” (2023).
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Energy Security → Inability to keep home adequately warm
16 December 2022 · Direct contribution
via Energy Security → Inability to keep home adequately warm
18 August 2023 · Direct contribution
via Energy Security → Inability to keep home adequately warm
6 March 2023 · Direct contribution
15 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
via Food-Price Pressure → Under-five mortality rate (global)
24 August 2023 · Direct contribution
via Inflationary Pressure → Global Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
20 January 2023 · Direct contribution
via Food-Price Pressure → Under-five mortality rate (global)
24 August 2023 · Direct contribution
1 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
The 2021–24 premiership is not a civic saint and not a single-issue rearmament footnote. The heaviest documented costs are Unification Church entanglement after Abe’s assassination, an LDP slush-fund scandal that ended his leadership, yen-and-inflation pain, and Fukushima treated-water discharge with fishery-and-China costs. Those rest on Kantei texts, Diet votes, TEPCO/IAEA records, and wires.
The offsets are dated. The Diet, MOD, TEPCO, and allies share several files.
He does not sit as an IAEA inspector and he does not vote in the 2026 Diet as prime minister. Confidence is high on the 2021 designation, the 2022 NSS, the 2024 resignation, and IAEA-adjacent discharge records, and medium where TEPCO, LDP factions, and later CPI sit between a signature and a welfare indicator.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−46 pts to the score
Observed
5.8 annual % change in CPI · 2.3 above the normal line (Dec 2024)
Better than normal5 readings, 2020–2024: rose from 3.3 annual % change in CPI to 5.8 annual % change in CPI.
Moving normal line · 2022–2024 · 9 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor 3
−38 pts to the score
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better · 2022–2024 · 7 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−37 pts to the score
Observed
7.97% of population aged 16 years or over · 5.2 above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal8 readings, 2018–2025: rose from 7.77% of population aged 16 years or over to 7.97% of population aged 16 years or over.
Above normal = worse · 2022–2023 · 4 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−33 pts to the score
Observed
91.6% of population · 8.4 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal4 readings, 2020–2023: rose from 90.4% of population to 91.6% of population.
Above normal = better · 2022–2023 · 5 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
+33 pts to the score
Observed
37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births · 12.4 above the normal line (Dec 2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 40 deaths per 1,000 live births to 37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Above normal = worse · 2021–2023 · 4 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−8 pts to the score
Observed
84% of one-year-olds · 11 below the normal line (Dec 2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 86.4% of one-year-olds to 84% of one-year-olds.
Above normal = better · 2021 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
responsibility level 0.75
responsibility level 0.6
responsibility level 0.5
responsibility level 0.45
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 0.8 · Responsibility 0.75 · Fact impact 0.35 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator 0.6 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.55 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 0.35 · Driver weight 0.85 · Driver → indicator 0.6 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.65 · Responsibility 0.6 · Fact impact 0.4 · Driver weight 0.8 · Driver → indicator 0.35 · Indicator importance 0.95 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
26 January 2024 · Institutional Corruption
LDP slush-fund scandal hits Kishida’s factions and ends his leadership path24 August 2023 · Food-Price Pressure
Japan begins discharging treated water from Fukushima Daiichi18 August 2023 · Energy Security
Kishida, Yoon and Biden meet at Camp David6 March 2023 · Social Cohesion
Kishida and Yoon announce a wartime-labour political deal20 January 2023 · Inflationary Pressure
Yen weakness and inflation print on Kishida’s watch16 December 2022 · Energy Security
Cabinet adopts a National Security Strategy and a 2-percent-of-GDP defence pathHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
30 of 30 linked facts verified, drawing on 15 distinct sources (2021–2024).
Sources include Prime Minister's Office of Japan, Ministry of Finance Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Japan, National Diet of Japan, Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Cabinet Office of Japan, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Japan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Japan.
Sources (showing 8 of 15)
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 15
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Fumio Kishida was prime minister of Japan from 4 October 2021 to 1 October 2024. As of 2026 Sanae Takaichi holds the Kantei after Ishiba. Article 66 of the Constitution makes the PM head of cabinet. It does not make him the author of a US NDAA or of an IAEA licence.
That limit is the first fact about his power. The second is that a resignation after a slush-fund scandal is a completed political end, not a unique CPI coefficient.
After Abe’s assassination the Unification Church file exploded; Kishida’s government opened an inquiry and later dissolved-adjacent procedures, but LDP ties were a completed entanglement. The state funeral was a completed cost-and-polarization instrument. The 2023–24 slush-fund scandal ended his leadership. Yen weakness and inflation printed on his watch. Fukushima treated-water discharge is a completed IAEA-adjacent environmental-and-fishery file; China banned seafood. He did not write Beijing’s ban.
The December 2022 NSS and a 2-percent-of-GDP defence path are completed security instruments. G7 Hiroshima is a completed host summit. Camp David with Yoon and Biden is a completed trilateral. A Ukraine visit is a completed diplomatic act. Some nuclear restarts moved on his watch with NRA licences he does not write.
Abe, Suga, Ishiba, Takaichi, Biden, Yoon, Zelenskyy, TEPCO, and LDP factions are not extras. Treating Kishida as sole author of every reactor, or as a bystander on slush funds, would be the same error in opposite directions.
The score does not say he is still PM in 2026. It does not convert a church inquiry into a unique homicide. Confidence is high on Diet votes and the resignation, and medium where TEPCO and factions sit between a signature and a welfare series.
Related people are Abe, Suga, Ishiba, Yoon, Biden, Zelenskyy, Xi, Wong, Tsai, and Macron. Related news includes Abe resignation, Suga PM, Noto earthquake, NATO, Ukraine, and COP files already in production.
A former prime minister is powerful enough to have owned an NSS, a treated-water discharge, and a slush-fund end. He is not powerful enough to be Japan’s 2026 incumbent, the author of an IAEA licence, or a Korean wartime-labour judgment, and the catalog keeps that line visible. The 2021 designation and the 2024 resignation are different dates. Keep them separate. Unification Church weather after Abe’s assassination is not a completed finding that Kishida ordered the church. A G7 communiqué is not a HIMARS. Those distinctions are the alternative to a halo and the alternative to a cartoon. Keep 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 on separate dates. A successor in 2025 does not unwrite a 2022 NSS. A 2026 Takaichi Diet does not unwrite a 2023 treated-water valve.
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