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Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

63

Net positiveFormula-derived score

The through-line is democratic rupture: 8 January 2023 in Brasília, TSE’s 30 June 2023 eight-year ineligibility, and the STF First Panel’s 11 September 2025 conviction to 27 years and three months for leading a coup plot. A living former ruler is scored on those instruments, not as a rehab tour. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “TSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks” (2023).

Top harm

TSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks

−25 pts

Top offset

Crowds invade Brazil’s three powers in Brasília two days after Lula’s oath

+44 pts

PL Bolsonarista presidencyelectronic-vote denialcoup-plot prosecution treated as compatible with a 2022 runoff loss

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

Biggest offsets

Raises the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on 8 January 2023 and the 11 September 2025 STF conviction, not on a personality adjective.

First, 8 January. Crowds invaded the three powers’ buildings two days after Lula’s oath. He was in the United States. STF later named him as leader of the plot. Store both the absence and the conviction.

Second, TSE. On 30 June 2023 the Court declared him ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks questioning electronic voting. That bar is separate from the later criminal conviction.

Third, STF. On 11 September 2025 the First Panel convicted him 4–1 of coup d’état, attempted abolition of the democratic rule of law, and related counts, 27 years and three months (Agência Brasil (opens in a new tab)). Fux dissented. Appeals were rejected; he began serving in late 2025; humanitarian house arrest followed in 2026. A Congress reduction law was suspended by Moraes. Quote 11 September.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the live counterpart. Confidence is high on TSE and STF roll-calls, and medium where 8 January authorship sits between Florida absence and the later plot finding. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2023–2025).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonJair Bolsonaro
  2. FactTSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks
  3. DriverBolsonaro 8 January and coup-plot prosecution
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
−25 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator 0.5 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonJair Bolsonaro
  2. FactCrowds invade Brazil’s three powers in Brasília two days after Lula’s oath
  3. DriverBolsonaro 8 January and coup-plot prosecution
  4. IndicatorPolitical Stability and Absence of Violence Gap from the Highest Governance Score
+44 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator 0.5 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 11 September 2025 · Bolsonaro 8 January and coup-plot prosecution

    STF First Panel convicts Bolsonaro 4–1 and sentences him to 27 years 3 months
    +43 pts

  2. 30 June 2023 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    TSE declares Bolsonaro ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks
    −25 pts

  3. 8 January 2023 · Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power

    Crowds invade Brazil’s three powers in Brasília two days after Lula’s oath
    +44 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

3 of 3 linked facts verified, drawing on 3 distinct sources (2023–2025).

Sources include Agência Brasil, Superior Electoral Court of Brazil, Government of Brazil.

Sources

  1. 1.Agência Brasil — Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years in prison for coup plotAgência Brasil
  2. 2.TSE — 2024 municipal election resultsSuperior Electoral Court of Brazil
  3. 3.Government of Brazil — 8 January 2023 Praça dos Três Poderes neighbourhoodGovernment of Brazil

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 3

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Jair Bolsonaro was president of Brazil from 1 January 2019 to 1 January 2023. As of September 2026 he is a living former president under house arrest after an STF conviction. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the live 2022 winner. This run does not mint a cleaner twin.

He is not a rehab saint. On 8 January 2023 crowds invaded the Palácio do Planalto, Congresso Nacional and STF (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). He was in the United States. The day sits in the later coup-plot file.

On 30 June 2023 TSE declared him ineligible for eight years over 18 July 2022 remarks to ambassadors on electronic voting. That is a completed electoral-justice instrument.

On 11 September 2025 the STF First Panel convicted him 4–1 of leading a plot to overturn the 2022 election, including coup d’état and attempted abolition of the democratic rule of law, and sentenced him to 27 years and three months. Fux dissented, arguing competence and rejecting the coup characterisation. Store the dissent.

He began serving in late 2025 after appeals failed. Humanitarian house arrest followed in 2026 after illness. Moraes extended it. A 2026 Congress reduction law, after a Lula veto override, was suspended by Moraes. Quote those dates.

COVID CPI and Amazon deforestation prints are neighbouring files.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated. A 2018 competitive runoff is identity of how he entered. It does not rebate 11 September 2025.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

TSE and STF judged. He was the named leader in the STF file. Sharing Florida on 8 January is not a reason to drop the conviction. Sharing a Trump photograph is not a reason to hang a US 6 January statute as his.

Causal chain through facts

8 January 2023 weakens capacity for peaceful transfer. 30 June 2023 weakens electoral integrity as an ineligibility. 11 September 2025 strengthens bolsonaro-jan8-prosecution as a completed conviction. None hang on territorial-revisionism, ukraine-war, or Soviet-scope rows.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact number. Direction is negative: 8 January, TSE bar, STF conviction. Mauro Cid, Braga Netto, and Moraes remain names on this file, not invented biographies.

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