
Muhammad
Near balanceFormula-derived score
Prophet of Islam and Medina community leader (received c. 570–632). Documented harms: Badr, clan expulsions, Qurayza, Khaybar tribute labour, Maghazi satirist reports.

Near balanceFormula-derived score
Prophet of Islam and Medina community leader (received c. 570–632). Documented harms: Badr, clan expulsions, Qurayza, Khaybar tribute labour, Maghazi satirist reports.
Not rated yet: the verified records linked to this person, without a numeric impact.
8 June 632 · Driver: Political Polarization
1 March 632 · Driver: Protection of Minority Rights
1 January 632 · Driver: Digital Learning Access
1 January 631 · Driver: Fiscal-Policy Sustainability
The record is not a marble prophet and not a modern politician of similar given name. The heaviest documented costs are Hijra as forced move, Badr and Uhud, clan expulsions, Qurayza's lethal sentence as later told, Khaybar tribute labour, and Maghazi satirist reports. Those rest on Britannica event pages, Cambridge chapters, and sira-as-later-narrative.
The offsets are also dated: recitation corpus, Medina charter as recension, Hudaybiyyah, 630 amnesty, zakat teaching. Companions share several files.
He did not typeset 1924. He did not sit for the mosque-door photograph. He is not Yunus and not Buhari. Confidence is high on Hijra and 630, medium on Qurayza integers and Maghazi killings.
Indicators this person’s verified facts reach. No score contribution is assigned; the observed state is the indicator’s own reading.
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
0.62 · 0.25 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.37 to 0.62.
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
0.53 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 to 0.53.
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
42.5 index score (0-100) · 7.53 below the normal line (Dec 2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
3.08 Per 1000 people · 1.24 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal6 readings, 2018–2023: rose from 3.07 Per 1000 people to 3.08 Per 1000 people.
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
70% of 10-year-olds · 70 above the normal line (2022)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 57% of 10-year-olds (2019) and 70% of 10-year-olds (2022).
Above normal = worse
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Claimed
What happened
Responsibility
responsibility level 0.4
responsibility level 0.44
responsibility level 0.68
responsibility level 0.36
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
8 June 632 · Political Polarization
Muhammad dies at Medina without a written succession statute in the public file used here1 March 632 · Protection of Minority Rights
Muhammad delivers the Farewell sermon on pilgrimage as later dated public speech1 January 632 · Digital Learning Access
A recited Quranic corpus exists by Muhammad's death, not as a closed 1924 printed mushaf1 January 631 · Fiscal-Policy Sustainability
The Tabuk expedition levies a northern campaign as later Maghazi date it1 February 630 · Humanitarian Access
Hunayn and the siege of Ta'if follow the Mecca entry as later dated force15 January 630 · Social Cohesion
Idols are removed from the Kaaba after the 630 entry as later sira dates itHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
30 of 30 linked facts verified, drawing on 13 distinct sources (0610–0632).
Sources include Encyclopaedia Britannica, Sunnah.com, The British Library, Quran.com, Quranic Arabic Corpus / University of Leeds.
Sources (showing 8 of 13)
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 13
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Muhammad is a Meccan reciter who became a Medina referee and commander. Britannica at https://www.britannica.com/biography/Muhammad (opens in a new tab), the Hijrah article at https://www.britannica.com/event/Hijrah-Islam (opens in a new tab), and Quran pages at https://www.britannica.com/topic/Quran (opens in a new tab) are independent lives, not causal datasets. Corpus at https://corpus.quran.com/ (opens in a new tab) and Quran.com at https://quran.com/ (opens in a new tab) are later text machines. The British Library at https://www.bl.uk/sacred-texts/articles/the-holy-qur-an (opens in a new tab) locates a public Quran file. Sunnah.com at https://sunnah.com/ (opens in a new tab) is a later hadith carrier. Cambridge History of Islam chapters at https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-history-of-islam/ (opens in a new tab) and Fordham's Islamic sourcebook at https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/islam/islamsbook.asp (opens in a new tab) are independent neighbourhoods.
The Person-page image is a mosque door on Wikimedia. It is not a lifetime likeness. No contemporary portrait is used.
Badr (https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-Badr (opens in a new tab)) and Uhud (https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-Uhud (opens in a new tab)) are dated fights. The Ditch (https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-the-Ditch (opens in a new tab)) is a siege. Qaynuqa and Nadir are clan expulsions in the Medina file (https://www.britannica.com/place/Medina-Saudi-Arabia (opens in a new tab)). Qurayza is a lethal sentence Muhammad accepted in the later sira; unique integers are not invented here. Khaybar is conquest plus tribute labour. Maghazi satirist killings remain later narrative. Tabuk is a levy. Death in 632 left no recovered succession statute.
None of those rows require a theory of prophecy. They require a distinction between a charter, a battle, a sentence, and a later mushaf.
The recitation corpus, Aqaba pledges, Constitution of Medina (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Constitution-of-Medina (opens in a new tab)), Hudaybiyyah, 630 amnesty at Mecca (https://www.britannica.com/place/Mecca (opens in a new tab)), zakat teaching, and the Farewell sermon as recension are the cohesion and education path. Sharing them with clans, scribes, and pilgrims is required.
The dossier does not say that Muhammad sat for a portrait. It does not say that 1924 Cairo is 610. It does not say that this Person is Muhammad Yunus or Muhammadu Buhari. It does not invent a unique Qurayza headcount. Confidence is high on Hijra, Badr, Uhud, 630, and 632 as handbook chronology, medium on charter recension and Maghazi killings, low on letter-objects.
Related people on this page are Khadija, Abu Bakr, Umar, Ali, Aisha, Abu Talib, Heraclius as letter counterpart, Jesus as received prophetic predecessor in Islamic teaching, Sa'd ibn Mu'adh, and Hamza.
610 is recitation. 622 is Hijra and, separately, a charter recension. 624 is Badr, qibla, Ramadan, Qaynuqa. 625 is Uhud and Nadir. 627 is Trench then Qurayza. 628 is Hudaybiyyah then Khaybar. 630 is amnesty then idols then Hunayn. 632 is sermon, corpus-as-left, and death. Keep those unmerged.
Official locators include Corpus Quran, Quran.com, Sunnah.com, and the British Library Quran article. Independent locators include Britannica biography and event pages, Cambridge History of Islam, Fordham, Iranica at https://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/islam-in-iran-i-the-advent-of-islam (opens in a new tab), and Met Heilbrunn at https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/hd/isla/hd_isla.htm (opens in a new tab) as later essays, not as 610 acts. Those URLs are not Wikipedia.
What would change the reading: a recovered 622 autograph charter with different parties; a Maghazi demonstration that satirist killings are later fiction only; a lifetime likeness. Until then the door stays a door.
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