Near balanceFormula-derived score
The through-line is wartime gatekeeping: opaque negotiation channels and staffing power under martial law. A living OP head is scored on those instruments even on the defending side. Zelenskyy is referenced, never twinned.
Sources: [1]
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Ukraine war (Crimea–Donbas–2022+) → Global deaths from organized violence (UCDP)
11 February 2020 · Direct contribution
The heaviest documented costs sit on wartime OP concentration, not on a saint/traitor adjective.
He has headed the Office since 11 February 2020 and through the full-scale invasion. Independent reporting has recorded staffing fights over defence and agency chiefs, and criticism of opaque negotiation channels including the 2022 Istanbul track. Those are completed access facts, not unique embezzlement convictions unless a docket names him. The war is existential and defensive. That context does not convert the OP into an uncriticisable office.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains president. Confidence is medium where later polls sit between OP access and a welfare series. This paragraph is an assessment, not a substitute number.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−0.3 pts to the score
Observed
245k deaths per year · 195k above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse · 2020 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−0.2 pts to the score
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse · 2020 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
11 · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
73.7 · 1.92 above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 69.4 to 73.7.
Above normal = better
Linked through a verified fact
Observed
58.5 · 1.08 above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 52.8 to 58.5.
Above normal = better
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 0 · Driver → indicator −0.85 · Indicator importance 0.95 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
1 of 1 linked fact verified, drawing on 1 distinct source (2020).
Sources include Office of the President of Ukraine.
Sources
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 1
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Andriy Yermak has headed the Office of the President of Ukraine since 11 February 2020. The president is commander-in-chief. The OP head gates. Rustem Umerov is unresolved.
This page reuses ukraine-war. It does not mint a second war. Living OP head on the defending side still gets scrutiny.
Independent wires have recorded his role on negotiation tracks after 24 February 2022, including Istanbul, and controversies over who is hired and fired in defence and agencies under martial law. Store those as opacity and concentration, not as a unique treason cartoon and not as a unique anti-corruption halo. Allegation is not a completed judgment.
Wartime diplomatic access that kept partners in the room is a neighbouring file. It does not rebate staffing opacity.
He gates. The president decides. The Rada writes statutes. Sharing a defensive war is not a reason to drop the row.
OP concentration under martial law attaches to ukraine-war as wartime governance. It is not a Soviet executive-power-concentration primary home.
No exact number. Direction may be negative where opacity dominates. A later genuine open docket or a completed resignation gazette would be a different date. Shmyhal and Umerov remain names, not minted biographies.
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