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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Politician

Bola Ahmed Tinubu

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

As of August 2026 he remains president. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Nigeria removes fuel subsidy (2023), petrol prices surge” (2023). The largest positive offset is “Tinubu appoints Yemi Cardoso as CBN governor” (2023).

Sources: [1][2][3][4][5]+2

Top harm

Nigeria removes fuel subsidy (2023), petrol prices surge

−116 pts

Top offset

Tinubu appoints Yemi Cardoso as CBN governor

+14 pts

Nigerian APC machine pragmatismmarket-reform fiscal nationalismfederal bargaining treated as compatible with a cost-of-living shock and a 2027 re-election path
Promises1 tracked
  • Fulfilled1

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

25 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Biggest offsets

Raises the score
Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The file after 29 May 2023 is not a civic saint and not a single subsidy footnote. The heaviest documented costs are the inauguration-day petrol-subsidy kill, the 14 June 2023 naira unification, a household CPI and poverty shock the World Bank later printed at 139 million, #EndBadGovernance in August 2024, and a still-open insecurity file. Those rest on Eagle Square, CBN circulars, and wires. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus a ₦70,000 wage, NELFUND, FAAC inflows, a closed FX gap, and a 2026 tax-act start; this paragraph is not the score.

The offsets are also dated: the 2023 election and Supreme Court, Cardoso at CBN, Dangote-refinery weather, and an August 2026 scorecard that itself said household welfare was unfinished. Oyedele, Cardoso, NNPCL, and states share several files.

He does not sit as CBN once appointed and he does not write an NNPCL pump. Confidence is high on the 29 May speech, the 14 June float, and certified elections, and medium where World Bank lines, untried certificate files, and later CPI series sit between a speech and a welfare indicator.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Claimed

  • End Nigeria's petrol subsidy29 May 2023 · Recorded promise

What happened

  • Fulfilled

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • 2 linked facts have no assessed welfare direction yet.
  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2023–2026).
Promises and their outcomes
PromiseStatusDeadline
End Nigeria's petrol subsidy“subsidy is gone”
Fulfilled—

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonBola Ahmed Tinubu
  2. FactNigeria removes fuel subsidy (2023), petrol prices surge
  3. DriverCost-of-Living Pressure
  4. IndicatorUnder-five mortality rate (global)
−116 pts

Contribution size 0.85 · Responsibility 0.8 · Fact impact 0.75 · Driver weight 0.8 · Driver → indicator 0.3 · Indicator importance 0.95 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonBola Ahmed Tinubu
  2. FactTinubu declares the petrol subsidy gone on inauguration day
  3. DriverHousehold Purchasing Power
  4. IndicatorGlobal Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
−60 pts

Contribution size 0.85 · Responsibility 0.85 · Fact impact −0.8 · Driver weight 0.96 · Driver → indicator −0.4 · Indicator importance 0.9 · Deviation factor 3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonBola Ahmed Tinubu
  2. FactTinubu appoints Yemi Cardoso as CBN governor
  3. DriverHousehold Purchasing Power
  4. IndicatorGlobal Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
+14 pts

Contribution size 0.6 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact −0.35 · Driver weight 0.96 · Driver → indicator −0.4 · Indicator importance 0.9 · Deviation factor 3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 15 October 2025 · Household Purchasing Power

    The World Bank prints about 139 million Nigerians in poverty
    −56 pts

  2. 1 August 2024 · Protection of Minority Rights

    #EndBadGovernance protests meet a federal crackdown
    −42 pts

  3. 15 July 2024 · Household Purchasing Power

    Food-price prints remain elevated after the 2023 dual shock
    −50 pts

  4. 14 June 2023 · Household Purchasing Power

    CBN unifies and floats the naira two weeks after the oath
    −46 pts

  5. 29 May 2023 · Cost-of-Living Pressure

    Nigeria removes fuel subsidy (2023), petrol prices surge
    −116 pts

  6. 29 May 2023 · Household Purchasing Power

    Tinubu declares the petrol subsidy gone on inauguration day
    −60 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

31 of 31 linked facts verified, drawing on 7 distinct sources (2023–2026).

Sources include Federal Ministry of Finance Nigeria, State House Nigeria, Central Bank of Nigeria, NBS Nigeria, Supreme Court of Nigeria, World Bank, INEC.

Sources

  1. 1.State House — 29 May 2023 inaugural address declaring the petrol subsidy goneState House Nigeria
  2. 2.Central Bank of Nigeria — June 2023 naira unification / willing-buyer willing-sellerCentral Bank of Nigeria
  3. 3.National Bureau of Statistics — Q2 2025 GDP 4.23 percentNBS Nigeria
  4. 4.Federal Ministry of Finance — 2026 scorecard citing NELFUNDFederal Ministry of Finance Nigeria
  5. 5.Supreme Court of Nigeria — 26 October 2023 presidential-election appealsSupreme Court of Nigeria
  6. 6.Turning the corner: From reforms to results for NigeriansWorld Bank
  7. 7.Independent National Electoral Commission — declaration of the 2023 presidential winnerINEC

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 7

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power he actually held

Bola Tinubu has been president of Nigeria since 29 May 2023. CBN sets the naira. NNPCL prints pumps. INEC certifies. He is the political principal, not every FAAC clerk.

As of August 2026 he remains in office.

What went wrong, and what is proven

The sharpest documented costs that are dated and named are ‘subsidy is gone’, 29 May 2023 and the 14 June 2023 naira unification. Pump prices moved from about ₦185 toward ₦1,100–1,400. The naira lost most of its prior official value. #EndBadGovernance, August 2024 is a completed protest-and-crackdown cluster. Insecurity remains a completed 2024 violence cluster under his federal watch. ECOWAS-Niger, 2023 is a completed regional-force file. Petrol-price resets after Dangote weather are dated household shocks. Tax bills, June 2025 were contested across regions before a 1 January 2026 start. CBN Ways-and-Means inheritance is a completed stock he had to close.

What improved, and how far

The 25 February 2023 election and 29 May oath are completed rotations. Supreme Court, October 2023 upheld the result. Yemi Cardoso at CBN is a completed appointment. ₦70,000 minimum wage is a completed floor, remaining price lag named. NELFUND is a completed student-loan start. FAAC/state salaries is a dated fiscal-flow. FX-gap close is a measured unification print. Cash transfers are dated household instruments. Reserves print is a completed CBN stock. GDP 4.23 percent, Q2 2025 is a measured quarter. August 2026 scorecard is a completed ministry account that itself said household welfare was unfinished.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

The score does not say that every pump naira is a unique later conviction of a subsidy cabal. It does not say that a wage floor rebates a 139-million poverty print. It does not convert a 2027 filing into a completed second term. Confidence is high on Eagle Square and CBN circulars, and medium where World Bank lines, untried certificate files, and later CPI series sit between a speech and a welfare indicator.

Related people are counterpart rulers who actually shared files: Ramaphosa, Ruto, Abiy, Sheinbaum, Lula, Trump, Biden, Macron, von der Leyen, Guterres, Carney, Modi.

Official carriers include State House and contemporaneous Reuters.

A president is powerful enough to own those two June-2023 instruments. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of every NNPCL tanker, and the dossier keeps that line visible. Keep 29 May off a 2026 tax act. Keep a World Bank print off NELFUND. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a Jagaban halo and the alternative to a cartoon.

The 2023 oath, the 2024 protests, and the 2026 tax-act start are different dates. Treat them as texts. A 2027 ballot is not a certificate. He is still president in August 2026. Cardoso, Oyedele, NNPCL, and states remain on the file so a brand cannot swallow them.

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