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Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno

Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The through-line is hereditary junta succession: a 20 April 2021 military charter against the 2018 vacancy rule, the 20 October 2022 crackdown when the clock was extended, the 28 February 2024 killing of Yaya Dillo as announced by the prosecutor, and a 16 May 2024 Council confirmation of a 6 May poll — not a caretaker. Still in office at apply. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Army names Mahamat Déby CMT president the day Idriss Déby dies” (2021).

Top harm

Army names Mahamat Déby CMT president the day Idriss Déby dies

−200 pts

Hereditary military presidencycivic freeze after October 2022AES-neighbour war spill without AES membership

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

1 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The heaviest documented costs sit on four clusters, not on a personality adjective.

First, hereditary succession. On 20 April 2021 state television named him CMT president. The 2018 constitution required speaker Haroun Kabadi to act. Kabadi is unresolved. Idriss Déby is prose only.

Second, civic freeze. On 20 October 2022 security forces fired on protests against a two-year extension. Kebzabo announced 50 dead. Amnesty and HRW recorded live ammunition. CNDH later reported at least 128 deaths. Those tallies are contested. This page does not invent a unique integer.

Third, opposition removal. On 28 February 2024 the prosecutor announced that Yaya Dillo was killed in an exchange of fire. HRW recorded the killing at party headquarters. Reuters later published forensic reviews contesting the exchange-of-fire account. Extra-judicial execution is not stored as a unique conviction. Dillo is unresolved.

Fourth, constitutional laundering. On 9 May 2024 ANGE declared him winner with 61.3 percent against Succès Masra at 18.53 percent. On 16 May the Constitutional Council confirmed. Masra is unresolved. A 2025 arrest and 2026 pardon are neighbouring.

Confidence is high on the television title, the dated crackdown, the prosecutor’s Dillo announcement, and the Council confirmation, and medium where October 2022 tallies disagree. This paragraph is an assessment of those paths, not a substitute number.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (2021–2024).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonMahamat Idriss Déby Itno
  2. FactArmy names Mahamat Déby CMT president the day Idriss Déby dies
  3. DriverDéby hereditary junta
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−200 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonMahamat Idriss Déby Itno
  2. FactProsecutor announces Yaya Dillo killed during a security-force operation
  3. DriverDéby hereditary junta
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−198 pts

Contribution size 1 · Responsibility 0.5 · Fact impact 1 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator −0.8 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 16 May 2024 · Electoral Integrity and Competitiveness

    Constitutional Council confirms Mahamat Déby winner of the 6 May presidential poll
    −149 pts

  2. 28 February 2024 · Civic Space

    Prosecutor announces Yaya Dillo killed during a security-force operation
    −198 pts

  3. 20 October 2022 · Civic Space

    Security forces fire on protests against the two-year extension of the transition
    −146 pts

  4. 20 April 2021 · Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power

    Army names Mahamat Déby CMT president the day Idriss Déby dies
    −200 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

4 of 4 linked facts verified, drawing on 4 distinct sources (2021–2024).

Sources include Reuters, Al Jazeera.

Sources

  1. 1.Reuters — Constitutional Council confirms Déby, dismisses Masra challenge, 16 May 2024Reuters
  2. 2.Al Jazeera — state prosecutor says Yaya Dillo killed in exchange of fire, 29 February 2024Al Jazeera
  3. 3.Al Jazeera — Prime Minister Kebzabo announces 50 dead after 20 October 2022 protestsAl Jazeera
  4. 4.Al Jazeera — army names Mahamat Déby interim president after Idriss Déby’s death, 20 April 2021Al Jazeera

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 4

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

Identity and office

Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno has been president of Chad since 23 May 2024, after CMT and transitional titles from 20 April 2021. He remains commander. He does not write a CNDH report. Idriss Déby Itno is named as the father who died on 20 April 2021. He is not minted.

The succession file is dated. On 20 April 2021 army spokesman Azem Bermandoa Agouna announced Idriss Déby’s death on state television and named Mahamat president of a fifteen-general council, with an 18-month transition, a curfew, and closed borders (Al Jazeera (opens in a new tab)). Under the 2018 constitution the National Assembly speaker, Haroun Kabadi, should have acted and an election called within 45–90 days. Rivals called it a dynastic coup (BBC (opens in a new tab)). A charter published 21 April made the CMT president head of state and commander (RFI (opens in a new tab)). Kabadi is unresolved.

The civic-freeze file is a force product. On 20 October 2022, the original 18-month mark after the dialogue extended the clock, security forces fired on banned protests. Prime Minister Saleh Kebzabo announced a provisional 50 dead and 300 injured and said forces acted in self-defence (Al Jazeera (opens in a new tab)). Amnesty recorded live ammunition and called for an immediate halt (Amnesty (opens in a new tab)). Human Rights Watch recorded scores shot (HRW (opens in a new tab)). CNDH later reported at least 128 deaths. LTDH later reported a higher tally. Those instruments disagree. This page does not invent a unique integer. A 2023 amnesty law later closed prosecutions of the force file (HRW (opens in a new tab)).

The opposition-removal file is a prosecutor product. On 28 February 2024 Oumar Mahamat Kedelaye announced that Yaya Dillo, president of the Parti socialiste sans frontières, had been killed in an exchange of fire after an alleged attack on the National State Security Agency (Al Jazeera (opens in a new tab)). Human Rights Watch recorded the killing at party headquarters and called for an independent investigation (HRW (opens in a new tab)). Reuters later published forensic reviews of a photograph that five experts said was compatible with a contact wound, contesting the exchange-of-fire account. Extra-judicial execution is not stored as a unique conviction. Dillo is unresolved. This run does not mint him.

The poll file is official. On 9 May 2024 ANGE declared Mahamat winner with 61.3 percent against Succès Masra at 18.53 percent (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). On 16 May the Constitutional Council dismissed challenges and confirmed him (Reuters (opens in a new tab)). Masra is unresolved. A 16 May 2025 arrest and 9 August 2025 twenty-year sentence, later pardoned on 14 August 2026, are neighbouring civic-freeze instruments. They are not a rebate of 16 May 2024.

Documented benefits

The offsets that a commissioned-positive portrait would lead with are real only where dated, and they are not this assignment’s through-line. Hosting Sudanese refugees after 15 April 2023 is neighbourhood. It is not a unique IDP integer and not a rebate of 20 April 2021. Chad is not an AES signatory.

Contributions and limits of responsibility

He accepted the CMT title. He remained when the clock was extended. Security forces under the transition fired on 20 October 2022. The prosecutor announced Dillo’s death. ANGE and the Council wrote the 2024 confirmation. Sharing execution with a spokesman, a prime minister, or a council president is not a reason to drop 20 April 2021. It is a reason not to mint Kabadi, Masra, or Dillo.

Causal chain through facts

The 2021 CMT title strengthens the owned hereditary-junta driver and weakens electoral integrity, civic space, and transfer capacity. The 2022 crackdown and the 2024 Dillo announcement weaken civic space. The 2024 Council confirmation strengthens the owned driver and weakens electoral rotation. They do not hang on ukraine-war, nagorno-karabakh-war, eastern-drc-m23-rdf, territorial-revisionism, or Soviet state-repression.

What the score does not say

This page does not promise an exact October 2022 census or a completed extra-judicial-execution conviction. Direction on this chain is negative: the documented instruments replace a speaker-led vacancy with a son, enforce an extended clock with live fire, leave a leading cousin dead before the ballot, and confirm a junta-organised poll. A later genuine contest would be a different fact with a different date.

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