One year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration
On the first anniversary of Pretoria, 2 November 2023, western Tigray (Welkait and neighbouring areas) remained under Amhara administration and militia presence, with large numbers of Tigrayans still displaced. In the causal graph this event strengthens Forced-Displacement Scale, a driver that strengthens People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC) — a worsening welfare path.
Read the full account
On the first anniversary of Pretoria, 2 November 2023, western Tigray (Welkait and neighbouring areas) remained under Amhara administration and militia presence, with large numbers of Tigrayans still displaced.
Context
Pretoria left territorial status to the constitution. Federal forces and Amhara authorities remained. He signed Pretoria as federal principal and still commands the ENDF. HRW and others documented unfinished return.
Pretoria is 2 November 2022. Amhara SoE is August 2023.
The prime minister of Ethiopia is chief executive under the 1995 constitution as amended, chairs the Council of Ministers, and commands the ENDF in practice. He does not write AU Assembly resolutions, OHCHR investigation reports, IMF board decisions, or Somali federal statutes.
Why it matters
It does not unwrite the cessation of large-scale fighting.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Abiy Ahmed
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.5 · verified
He remains federal principal on Pretoria implementation. Amhara authorities and ENDF still sat in the zone. TPLF also had unmet disarmament clauses.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactOne year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration
- strengthensDriverForced-Displacement Scale
- strengthensIndicators (2)People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 2 November 2023 · verified
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.4 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.8)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
- Worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.23 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.46)
Observed
10.4% · 10.2 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 11.1% to 10.4%.
Above normal = worse
- FactOne year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration
- weakensDriverProtection of Minority Rights
- strengthensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
impact weight 0.45 · Effect from 2 November 2023 · verified
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.2 (weight 0.45 × strength 0.45)
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
20212023 Above normal = better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.2 (weight 0.45 × strength 0.45)
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Ethiopia: Ethnic Cleansing Persists Under Tigray TruceHuman Rights Watch · verified
- 2.Report of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on EthiopiaUnited Nations · verified
- 3.Human Rights Watch — Ethiopia: Tigray return blocked in western TigrayHuman Rights Watch · High credibility · verified
- 4.African Union — Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities, 2 November 2022African Union · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
African Union carries the official instrument or communique. Human Rights Watch records the same dated act independently.
Established: a November 2023 documented failure to restore Tigrayan administration and returns in western Tigray one year after Pretoria.
Not established: that Pretoria was thereby void, or a unique remaining-IDP coefficient as his personal count.
Amhara authorities and ENDF still sat in the zone. TPLF also had unmet disarmament clauses.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies One year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration, not a later speech about One year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor decree exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He remains federal principal on Pretoria implementation. TPLF also had unmet disarmament clauses. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Human Rights Watch reported on 1 June 2023 that local authorities and Amhara forces in Western Tigray continued forcibly expelling Tigrayans after the 2 November 2022 truce and said people had been detained on the basis of identity before expulsions in November 2022 and January 2023. The UN International Commission’s September 2023 report likewise said serious violations in Tigray continued after the cessation agreement and identified the continued presence of Eritrean forces and abuses by Amhara actors as unresolved concerns.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorAbiy Ahmed
- contributed toFactOne year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration
- strengthensDrivers (2)Forced-Displacement Scale
- strengthensIndicatorPeople Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). One year after Pretoria, western Tigray remains under non-Tigrayan administration. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/et-western-tigray-unresolved-2023
https://factrail.ai/facts/et-western-tigray-unresolved-2023
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
Dispute this factNamed here, or represent someone who is? Request a right of reply.