Iran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva
On 24 November 2013 Iran and the E3+3 agreed a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva, an interim nuclear freeze-for-relief deal. In the causal graph this event weakens Sanctions Pressure, a driver that strengthens Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population) — an improving welfare path.
Read the full account
On 24 November 2013 Iran and the E3+3 agreed a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva, an interim nuclear freeze-for-relief deal. Khamenei had allowed Rouhani to talk.
Context
Rouhani had just been elected. Neighbouring JCPOA 2015 is the child. He did not sit in the Geneva hotel as a unique later centrifuge coefficient.
Rouhani 2013 election is neighbouring. JCPOA 2015 is the child.
The Supreme Leader of Iran is commander-in-chief and the highest constitutional authority. He does not write a US presidential strike order, an IAEA Board resolution, or a Hamas military plan. Presidents, the IRGC, and the Guardian Council implement and share specific files.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Ali Khamenei
PersonDirect responsibility
responsibility level 0.45 · verified
He allowed the talks. Rouhani and Zarif negotiated. The E3+3 signed.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactIran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva
- weakensDriverSanctions Pressure
- strengthensIndicators (4)Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)
impact weight 0.4 · Effect from 24 November 2013 · verified
An interim freeze-for-relief deal is a completed limited sanctions-easing instrument.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.3 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.74)
Observed
10.4% · 10.2 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 11.1% to 10.4%.
Above normal = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.21 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.53)
Observed
80 Years · 2.3 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal6 readings, 2018–2023: rose from 79.5 Years to 80 Years.
Above normal = better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.4)
Observed
5.8 annual % change in CPI · 2.3 above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal5 readings, 2020–2024: rose from 3.3 annual % change in CPI to 5.8 annual % change in CPI.
Moving normal line
All indicators on this path (4)
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.08 (weight 0.4 × strength 0.2)
Observed
245k deaths per year · 195k above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
- FactIran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva
- strengthensDriverEnergy Security
- strengthensIndicators (4)Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 24 November 2013 · verified
A completed interim nuclear freeze can lower expected strike risk, with lag.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.22 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.62)
Observed
10.4% · 10.2 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 11.1% to 10.4%.
Above normal = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.21 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.6)
Observed
7.97% of population aged 16 years or over · 5.2 above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal8 readings, 2018–2025: rose from 7.77% of population aged 16 years or over to 7.97% of population aged 16 years or over.
Above normal = worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.17 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.5)
Observed
91.6% of population · 8.4 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal4 readings, 2020–2023: rose from 90.4% of population to 91.6% of population.
Above normal = better
All indicators on this path (4)
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.17 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.48)
Observed
80 Years · 2.3 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal6 readings, 2018–2023: rose from 79.5 Years to 80 Years.
Above normal = better
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Iran, world powers reach nuclear dealReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.IAEA / E3+3 — Joint Plan of Action, 24 November 2013International Atomic Energy Agency · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish
International Atomic Energy Agency carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.
Established: 24 November 2013 JPOA, independently reported.
Not established: that JCPOA was thereby guaranteed, or a unique later enrichment coefficient of zero forever.
Rouhani and Zarif negotiated. The E3+3 signed.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies Iran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva, not a later speech about Iran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva.
Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to He allowed the talks. Rouhani and Zarif negotiated. The E3+3 signed. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- ActorAli Khamenei
- contributed toFactIran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva
- weakensDrivers (2)Sanctions Pressure
- strengthensIndicatorPoverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Iran and the E3+3 agree a Joint Plan of Action in Geneva. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/ir-jpoa-2013
https://factrail.ai/facts/ir-jpoa-2013
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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