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Ali Khamenei

Ali Khamenei

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

The live record is 2009, 2019 and 2022 crackdowns, a 2026 protest bloodletting, nuclear bargains and their later reduction, and the war that killed him — beside JCPOA, the 2023 Saudi restoration, and elections he allowed inside a filtered system. Country is Iran, not Pahlavi Iran. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Mahsa Amini dies in morality-police custody; nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests are crushed” (2022).

Top harm

Mahsa Amini dies in morality-police custody; nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests are crushed

−84 pts

Velayat-e faqih clerical guardianshipanti-US and anti-Israel revolutionary strategyIRGC-backed regional deterrence treated as compatible with tightly filtered elections

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

11 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The file after 1989 is not a clerical saint and not a single missile footnote. The heaviest documented costs are the 1988 prison executions while he was president, the 2009 Green crackdown, the 2019 fuel-protest killings and shutdown, the 2022 Mahsa campaign, the January 2026 protest bloodletting, PS752, and a nuclear-and-proxy confrontation that ended with a war that killed him. Those rest on Leader-office texts, UN and IAEA files, and contemporaneous wires. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus JCPOA, UN 598, Saudi restoration, and filtered elections he allowed; this paragraph is not the score.

The offsets are dated: 1988 ceasefire as president, 2003–04 nuclear pauses, JCPOA 2015 and implementation day, Khatami/Rouhani/Pezeshkian openings he did not block, the 2023 Beijing restoration with Saudi Arabia, a 2023 prisoner swap, and the China 25-year partnership. The IRGC, presidents, and foreign counterparties share several files.

He did not write a US strike order and he did not sit in Hamas’s command. Confidence is high on Leader-office speeches, IAEA reports, and the 28 February 2026 death confirmation, and medium where the IRGC, proxies, and later casualty series sit between a fatwa-adjacent order and a welfare indicator.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (1981–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonAli Khamenei
  2. FactMahsa Amini dies in morality-police custody; nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests are crushed
  3. DriverDemocratic Resilience
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−84 pts

Contribution size 0.8 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact −0.65 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator 0.7 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonAli Khamenei
  2. FactSecurity forces crush January 2026 economic protests with mass killings
  3. DriverDemocratic Resilience
  4. IndicatorHaving a say in government
−54 pts

Contribution size 0.85 · Responsibility 0.8 · Fact impact −0.75 · Driver weight 0.55 · Driver → indicator 0.7 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 28 February 2026 · Humanitarian Access

    A US-Israeli war on Iran begins; Ali Khamenei is killed
    −34 pts

  2. 8 January 2026 · Democratic Resilience

    Security forces crush January 2026 economic protests with mass killings
    −54 pts

  3. 16 September 2022 · Protection of Minority Rights

    Mahsa Amini dies in morality-police custody; nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests are crushed
    −84 pts

  4. 27 March 2021 · Industrial-Policy Activism

    Iran and China sign a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement
    −9 pts

  5. 9 February 2021 · Vaccine Accessibility

    Iran begins a COVID-19 vaccination campaign after a delayed start
    −31 pts

  6. 8 January 2020 · Humanitarian Access

    IRGC missiles shoot down Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752
    −10 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

30 of 30 linked facts verified, drawing on 12 distinct sources (1981–2026).

Sources include Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of State, Saudi Press Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency, United Nations Security Council, United Nations.

Sources (showing 8 of 12)

  1. 1.Leader’s office — 2009 election and Friday-prayer line backing the resultOffice of the Supreme Leader of Iran
  2. 2.IAEA / E3+3 — Joint Plan of Action, 24 November 2013International Atomic Energy Agency
  3. 3.U.S. Department of Defense — Hegseth and Caine press conference on Operation Midnight Hammer, 22 June 2025U.S. Department of Defense
  4. 4.AP — Israeli military says 99% of drones and missiles launched by Iran were intercepted, 13–14 April 2024Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran
  5. 5.US Department of State — Iran prisoner exchange, September 2023U.S. Department of State
  6. 6.Saudi Press Agency — announcement of Decisive Storm, March 2015Saudi Press Agency
  7. 7.BBC News — Fury in Iran as young woman dies following morality police arrest, 16 September 2022Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran
  8. 8.IAEA — statement on JCPOA Implementation Day, 16 January 2016International Atomic Energy Agency

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 12

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power he actually held

Ali Khamenei was Supreme Leader of Iran from 4 June 1989 until 28 February 2026. The constitution makes the Leader commander-in-chief. Presidents from Rafsanjani to Pezeshkian implemented. The IRGC fought. He is not every Basij volunteer.

He was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike as the 2026 Iran war opened. Iranian state media confirmed the death on 1 March. Mojtaba Khamenei became Leader on 8 March. This page does not become Mojtaba’s page.

Country on this page is Iran. A live row that said Pahlavi Iran is a neighbouring identity error this catalog corrects.

What went wrong, and what is proven

House arrest of Mousavi and Karroubi froze 2009’s opposition. 1988 prison executions sit on his presidency under Khomeini’s Leadership.

PS752 is a completed IRGC shoot-down he later acknowledged as a ‘great tragedy’. 8 January 2020 missiles on US bases are a completed CinC response after Soleimani. April 2024 strikes on Israel are a completed direct attack. A 2023 speech after 7 October is a completed political blessing, not a finding that he wrote Hamas’s raid.

JCPOA reductions from 2019 are completed steps away from a deal the US had already left. 2025 US nuclear-site strikes and the 28 February 2026 war that killed him are reused live Facts: he owned the nuclear-security file; he did not write the US-Israeli opening order.

What improved, and how far

UN Security Council resolution 598 is a completed ceasefire he accepted as president. The 2003 Tehran declaration and 2004 Paris agreement are completed nuclear pauses. JPOA 2013, JCPOA 2015 and implementation day 2016 are completed bargains. Khatami 1997, Rouhani 2013 and Pezeshkian 2024 are completed filtered openings he did not veto. The 2023 Saudi restoration is reused from the Mohammed bin Salman catalog. A 2023 prisoner swap, the China 25-year partnership, COVID vaccination, and his 1981 presidential oath are dated.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

The score does not say that every IRGC missile is a personal homicide count. It does not say that JCPOA rebates Mahsa. It does not convert being killed in an airstrike into authorship of that strike. Confidence is high on Leader-office and IAEA texts, and medium where the Guard, proxies, and later casualty series sit between a speech and a welfare indicator.

Related people are presidents, adversaries, and counterpart rulers who actually shared files: Pezeshkian, Raisi, Netanyahu, Trump, Biden, Putin, Xi, Nasrallah, Haniyeh, Mohammed bin Salman, Guterres, Erdoğan. Related news and analysis are the 2025 nuclear-site strikes, Iran-Israel confrontation, and proxy-network cluster already in production.

Official carriers include the Leader’s office (https://english.khamenei.ir/ (opens in a new tab)), IAEA, UN, and contemporaneous Reuters.

A Supreme Leader is powerful enough to own those decrees. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of a US bunker-buster or of Hamas’s 7 October raid, and the dossier keeps that line visible. Keep 2009 off JCPOA. Keep Mahsa off a Saudi handshake. Keep 28 February off a 1988 ceasefire. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a martyr film and the alternative to a cartoon.

Questions

Is Ali Khamenei under sanctions?

Yes. 21 June 2025: The United States strikes three Iranian nuclear sites (U.S. Department of Defense). 27 March 2021: Iran and China sign a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran).

Does Ali Khamenei face an ICC warrant or criminal charges?

8 January 2020: IRGC missiles shoot down Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752. 14 February 2011: Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are placed under house arrest. 19 July 1988: Iran carries out mass prison executions of political prisoners in 1988.

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