RSF captures El Fasher after a prolonged siege
Dated 26 October 2025: RSF captures El Fasher after a prolonged siege. In the causal graph this event strengthens Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+), a driver that strengthens People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC) — a worsening welfare path.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
No public contributors are listed for this fact.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactRSF captures El Fasher after a prolonged siege
- strengthensDriverSudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+)
- strengthensIndicators (6)People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
provisional weight · verified
Strengthens · 90% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
Strengthens · 85% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
245k deaths per year · 195k above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
Strengthens · 40% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
11% of primary-school-age children · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
All indicators on this path (6)
- Worse
Strengthens · 40% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
27.9% · 19.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 21.5% to 27.9%.
Above normal = worse
Weakens · 40% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
73.7% · 1.92 above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 69.4% to 73.7%.
Above normal = better
Weakens · 40% impact strength (driver → indicator)
Observed
58.5% · 1.08 above the normal line (2024)
Better than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: rose from 52.8% to 58.5%.
Above normal = better
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- FactRSF captures El Fasher after a prolonged siege
- strengthensDriverSudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+)
- strengthensIndicatorPeople Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). RSF captures El Fasher after a prolonged siege. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/rsf-captures-el-fasher-after-long-siege-2025-10-26
https://factrail.ai/facts/rsf-captures-el-fasher-after-long-siege-2025-10-26
Accessed 16 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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