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The TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency

On 26 January 2024 Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice upheld the administrative disqualification of opposition primary winner María Corina Machado from holding public office, blocking her presidential bid. It sits as a child breach of the 17 October 2023 Barbados electoral guarantees. In the causal graph this event weakens Democratic Resilience, a driver that strengthens Having a say in government — a worsening welfare path.

Sources: [1][2]

Read the full account

On 26 January 2024 Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice upheld the administrative disqualification of opposition primary winner María Corina Machado from holding public office, blocking her presidential bid. It sits as a child breach of the 17 October 2023 Barbados electoral guarantees. He did not sit as the Sala Constitucional.

Context

Barbados guarantees sat as parent. Neighbouring 15 February OHCHR expulsion is a child. CNE 28 July is a later child.

Barbados 17 October is the parent signing. CNE 28 July 2024 is a later child. Carter 30 July is a later finding.

The President of Venezuela heads the national executive, commands FANB as commander-in-chief, appoints the cabinet, and can request enabling laws. He does not write an OFAC designation, an ICC Pre-Trial Chamber decision, or a Colombian migration statute. A CNE announcement is not an opposition acta and is not a Carter Center finding. Those three statuses stay on separate rows. An ICC investigation is not a conviction. An IMF figure is labelled as an estimate where BCV stopped publishing. Sanctions after 2017 and 2019 are an external causal factor; they do not erase the pre-2017 PDVSA-and-policy collapse.

Why it matters

The path is democratic resilience: a completed candidate-exclusion instrument after a guarantees signing.

Who was responsible

Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.

  • Nicolás Maduro

    Person

    Direct responsibility

    responsibility level 0.8 · verified

    TSJ wrote the decision. The comptroller’s earlier ban sat as parent. He owned the executive that Barbados had bound. Machado remains a live counterpart on this page.

What changed

Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.

    1. FactThe TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency
    2. weakensDriverDemocratic Resilience
    3. strengthensIndicators (3)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.8 · Effect from 26 January 2024 · verified

    A completed ban on the opposition primary winner after Barbados is a dated guarantees-breach instrument.

    • Having a say in government

      via Democratic Resilience

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.56 (weight 0.8 × strength 0.7)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Clean elections index

      via Democratic Resilience

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.36 (weight 0.8 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.53 score from 0 to 1 · 0.34 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      125 readings, 1900–2024: rose from 0.17 score from 0 to 1 to 0.53 score from 0 to 1.

      Above normal = better

    • WJP Rule of Law Index (global)

      via Democratic Resilience

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.36 (weight 0.8 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      Above normal = better

    1. FactThe TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency
    2. weakensDriverProtection of Minority Rights
    3. strengthensIndicators (2)Having a say in government
    Worsening path

    impact weight 0.55 · Effect from 26 January 2024 · verified

    Excluding a named opposition leader is a dated political-rights contraction.

    • Having a say in government

      via Protection of Minority Rights

      Worse

      Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)

      Worse than normal

      Two readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).

      20212023

      Above normal = better

    • Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score

      via Protection of Minority Rights

      Worse

      Weakens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.55 × strength 0.45)

      Observed

      43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)

      Worse than normal

      26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.

      Normal is zero · any amount = worse

Evidence

The sources behind this fact and its verification state.

Verified2 sources on file
  1. 1.Reuters — Venezuela’s top court upholds ban on opposition leader MachadoReuters · High credibility · verified
  2. 2.Tribunal Supremo de Justicia — March 2017 rulings on the National Assembly’s contempt and powersTSJ · High credibility · verified
What the sources establish

TSJ carries the official instrument or communique. Reuters records the same dated act independently.

Established: 26 January 2024 TSJ confirmation of Machado’s ban, independently reported.

Not established: that Barbados was thereby legally void as a text, or a unique later turnout coefficient from that Friday.

The comptroller’s earlier ban sat as parent. He owned the executive that Barbados had bound. Machado remains a live counterpart on this page.. A later repeal, court stay, or successor order would be a different Fact with a different date. That pair identifies The TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency, not a later speech about The TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency.

Co-authors and later implementers named in Context remain on the file. If a later repeal, stay, or successor instrument exists, it needs its own date and its own row. The contribution described on this Person row is limited to TSJ wrote the decision. That limit is the alternative to treating office-holding as authorship of every later series.

Causal path

How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.

  1. ActorNicolás Maduro
  2. contributed toFactThe TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency
  3. weakensDrivers (2)Democratic Resilience
  4. strengthensIndicatorHaving a say in government

Cite this page

Factrail. (2026). The TSJ upholds María Corina Machado’s disqualification from seeking the presidency. Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/ve-machado-2024

https://factrail.ai/facts/ve-machado-2024

Accessed 16 October 2026.

By the · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed

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