Updated Jan 2024
Terrorist Activity is a continuing, time-varying factor within international security and war. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a welfare score, or…
Industrial-Policy Activism is a continuing, time-varying factor within trade, logistics, and industrial policy. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a w…
Updated Jan 2023
Health-system capacity stress is the continuing adequacy of beds, workforce, oxygen, and referral — whether a district hospital can take the next severe case. It is not COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 used this capacity. It is not [pandemic preparednes…
Updated Jan 2025
Sanctions pressure is the continuing intensity of restrictive measures — listings, sectoral bans, messaging cuts, embargoes, and secondary-risk — as a meter, not a single episode. It is a mechanism that can strengthen or weaken across reporting periods. It is not a person, not a unique listing census, and not a welfare score. The driver is not sanctions-russia-2022
Water scarcity stress is one continuing hydrology-and-allocation mechanism: whether renewable freshwater, storage, and rights are sufficient for people, farms, and cities without mining aquifers or cutting environmental flows. It is a mechanism, not a drought headline, not a dam brochure, and not a welfare score. The driver is not drought risk, not…
Kiir oil patronage rule is one continuing domestic mechanism in South Sudan: the president who sacked Vice-President Riek Machar and the cabinet in July 2013, whose forces fought Machar’s after 15 December 2013, and who in September 2024 extended the 2018 peace-deal transition and postponed the first post-independence elections to December 2026. It is a mechanism, not a pea…
Ebola outbreak response architecture is the continuing IHR-and-field mechanism for containing filovirus outbreaks: laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, isolation, safe burial, ring vaccination where a licensed product exists, and Public Health Emergency of International Concern determinations. It is not a single 2014 headline, not a unique Factrail death total, and not…
Abela Labour rule of law is one continuing Maltese mechanism: the Labour lawyer who on 13 January 2020 swore as prime minister after Joseph Muscat resigned over the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder investigation, who promised to strengthen the rule of law while Reuters recorded him as a continuity candidate, and whose government was the respondent when a court on 24 February 2…
Akhannouch billionaire PM is one continuing Moroccan mechanism: the Akwa Group billionaire and RNI leader whom King Mohammed VI appointed prime minister-designate on 10 September 2021 after RNI won the 8 September election, and whose government the king appointed on 7 October 2021 as a RNI–PAM–Istiqlal cabinet. It is a mechanism, not a liberal-reform brochure and not a terr…
Updated Jan 2025
Banking-System Stability is a continuing, time-varying factor within macroeconomics and finance. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a welfare score, o…
Sassou oil autocracy is one continuing domestic mechanism in the Republic of the Congo: the president who on 25 October 2015 put a new constitution to a referendum that scrapped the two-term cap and the age-70 ceiling, then used that reset to take further PCT oil-state mandates, including the 15 March 2026 poll that Interior television put at 94.82 percent and the Constitut…
The continuing adequacy, training, retention, and deployment of qualified teachers. Teacher shortages (e.g. India's documented 508,000-teacher shortfall under the RTE Act) and uneven quality directly shape foundational learning outcomes.