Touadéra Wagner CAR is one continuing domestic mechanism in the Central African Republic: the president who in October 2022 removed Constitutional Court president Danièle Darlan after a ruling that blocked a term-limit workaround, then on 30 July 2023 held a referendum that abolished presidential term limits and stretched the term to seven years, with Wagner/Africa Corps co…
Goïta junta and AES break is one continuing domestic-and-regional mechanism in Mali: a special-forces colonel who led the August 2020 and 24 May 2021 coups, was named interim president by the Constitutional Court on 28 May 2021, signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter establishing the Alliance of Sahel States on 16 September 2023, then joined the 28 January 2024 joint communiqué…
Doumbouya junta transition is one continuing domestic mechanism in Guinea: the special-forces colonel who on 5 September 2021 detained Alpha Condé, dissolved the government and constitution, was sworn interim president on 1 October, then on 21 September 2025 put a constitution to a referendum that dropped the junta-member bar and stretched the presidential term to seven yea…
Ortega–Murillo family autocracy is one continuing Nicaraguan mechanism: the post-2018 repression that emptied competitive politics, the 7 November 2021 CSE announcement after opposition candidates were jailed, the 9 February 2023 expulsion of 222 prisoners to the United States with denationalisation under the traitor-to-the-homeland statute, the 14 January 2024 exile of Bis…
Déby hereditary junta is one continuing domestic mechanism in Chad: the generals who, on 20 April 2021, named Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno president of a Transitional Military Council the day his father Idriss Déby Itno died at the FACT front, replacing the 2018 constitution with a charter that made the son interim president and commander of the armed forces. It is a mechanism,…
Traoré junta AES is one continuing domestic-and-regional mechanism in Burkina Faso: an army captain who on 30 September 2022 ousted junta president Paul-Henri Damiba, dissolved government and constitution, then signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter on 16 September 2023 and the 28 January 2024 ECOWAS-withdrawal communiqué. It is a mechanism, not a pan-African brochure and not a…
Updated Jan 2025
Private Military Formation Activity is a continuing, time-varying factor within international security and war. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a w…
Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020–2023+) is one continuing use of force and corridor control by Azerbaijan against remaining Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin link, running from the 27 September 2020 offensive through the 10 November 2020 trilateral statement, the 12 December 2022 Lachin closure, the 19–20 September 2023 operation, the emptying of the Armenian po…
Cabello PSUV strongman is one continuing Venezuelan mechanism: Diosdado Cabello Rondón as PSUV first vice-president and later interior, justice and peace minister from 27 August 2024; OFAC SDN from 18 May 2018; an unsealed 26 March 2020 Southern District of New York narco-terrorism indictment that remains an allegation; Con El Mazo Dando as a named intimidation programme; a…
Updated Jan 2024
The Ukraine war is one continuing interstate war of aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, running from the 2014 seizure of Crimea and the hybrid war in Donbas through the failed Minsk freeze and into the 24 February 2022 full-scale invasion and the later annexation claims. It is a mechanism, not a headline and not three separate “crises.” Crimea, Donbas, and…
Household Purchasing Power is a continuing, time-varying factor within macroeconomics and finance. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a welfare score,…
Migration policy restrictiveness is a continuing meter of how tightly states and the Union screen, detain, return, and share (or refuse to share) responsibility for people seeking entry or protection. It is not the NEW Mediterranean event bundle. That bundle holds the 2016 EU-Turkey Statement,…