Orsi Broad Front return is one continuing Uruguayan mechanism: the 24 November 2024 runoff that returned Frente Amplio after Luis Lacalle Pou, the 1 March 2025 oath, a first year without a Diputados majority, the 26 November 2025 Búsqueda breakfast in which Orsi called Nayib Bukele “an example to analyse, not to follow”, the 26 March 2026 Plan Nacional de Seguridad with 79…
Labour-Market Tightness is a continuing, time-varying factor within macroeconomics and finance. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a welfare score, or…
Democratic resilience is a continuing meter of whether a political system can take a shock — an attempted self-coup, a stolen count, a foreign influence operation, a polarising emergency — and still hold a contestable election and a bound executive afterwards. It is not Electoral Integrity (the…
The continuing intensification of rules governing data protection, privacy, and dominant-platform conduct (e.g. GDPR-style data laws, digital-markets/gatekeeper rules). A regulatory force shaping how safely and fairly citizens experience the digital sphere. Digital-rights regulation becomes concrete when agencies impose limits on collection, retention, sale and monetization…
Biya Anglophone crisis and succession is one continuing domestic mechanism in Cameroon: a president who took office on 6 November 1982 and still holds it after an eighth Constitutional Council return, while security operations in the North-West and South-West, internet shutdowns, military-court secession trials, and a term-clock that no longer runs out close rotation. It is…
Israel–Gaza war (Oct 2023+) is one continuing armed conflict opened by the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip that followed, running through International Court of Justice provisional measures, Security Council ceasefire demands, International Criminal Court arrest warrants, and a later fragile ceasefire that did…
Capacity for Peaceful Transfer of Power is a continuing, time-varying factor within governance and democratic institutions. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organ…
Vaccination Confidence is a continuing, time-varying factor within health, demography, and the humanitarian environment. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organiza…
Judicial Independence is a continuing, time-varying factor within governance and democratic institutions. It is modeled as a Driver because its intensity, capacity, or prevalence can change across reporting periods and can transmit the effects of multiple events, decisions, and institutions to later outcomes. It is not a dated event, a person, an organization, a welfare…
Arce–MAS fracture is one continuing Bolivian mechanism: the 2023–2025 split of Movimiento al Socialismo between President Luis Arce and founder Evo Morales, the 26 June 2024 Plaza Murillo military assault that Arce called a coup and Zúñiga called a popularity stunt, the November 2024 TCP validation of the El Alto MAS congress that recognised Grover García instead of Morales…
Sudan civil war (SAF↔RSF 2023+) is one continuing internal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, opened in Khartoum and Merowe on 15 April 2023 and then fought across Darfur, Kordofan, and later recovered and lost cities, through siege, famine classification, and the October 2025 assault on El Fasher. It is a mechanism, not a brochure and not a…
Tiani 2023 coup Niger is one continuing domestic-and-regional mechanism in Niger: the presidential-guard commander who on 26 July 2023 detained elected president Mohamed Bazoum, was declared CNSP head of state on 28 July, signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter on 16 September 2023, and joined the 28 January 2024 ECOWAS-withdrawal communiqué. It is a mechanism, not a pan-African…