Net harmfulFormula-derived score
The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “India begins COVID-19 vaccination” (2021). The largest positive offset is “Chandrayaan-3 lands near the lunar south pole” (2023).
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Vaccine Accessibility → First-dose measles vaccination coverage (global, MCV1)
16 January 2021 · Direct contribution
via Protection of Minority Rights → Rule of Law Gap from the Highest Governance Score
22 January 2024 · Direct contribution
via Household Purchasing Power → Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)
24 March 2020 · Direct contribution
11 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
via Digital Learning Access → Learning Poverty Rate (low- and middle-income countries)
23 August 2023 · Direct contribution
via Decarbonization and climate-mitigation policy → Renewable share of global electricity generation
2 October 2016 · Direct contribution
via Food-Price Pressure → Under-five mortality rate (global)
1 December 2021 · Direct contribution
2 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
The premiership after 2014 is not a civic saint and not a single-issue digital footnote. The heaviest documented costs are 2016 demonetisation, the 2019 Article 370 and J&K reorganisation cluster, CAA and its 2024 rules, the three farm laws (later repealed), electoral bonds later struck down, Agnipath, IT intermediary rules, the new criminal codes, and the Ram temple consecration as a polarisation instrument. Those rest on gazettes, presidential orders, Supreme Court text, and PIB. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus welfare, tax, vaccine, and climate offsets; this paragraph is not the score.
The offsets are also dated: Jan Dhan, Swachh Bharat, Ujjwala, GST, IBC, Ayushman Bharat, Jal Jeevan, Paris ratification, ISA, Digital India, UPI’s launch, the COVID vaccination start, farm-law repeal, Chandrayaan-3, G20 New Delhi, and a completed 2024 oath after a certified election. The RBI, NPCI, ISRO, WHO-era regulators, and Parliament share several of those files.
He does not sit as a Constitution Bench and he does not write ISRO guidance software. Confidence is high on enrolled laws, gazettes, and oaths, and medium where state implementation, police, and later welfare series sit between a signature and an indicator.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−164 pts to the score
Observed
43.9 Score · 43.9 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal26 readings, 1996–2024: rose from 43 Score to 43.9 Score.
Normal is zero · any amount = worse · 2019–2024 · 10 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−47 pts to the score
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better · 2022–2024 · 4 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−45 pts to the score
Observed
84% of one-year-olds · 11 below the normal line (Dec 2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 86.4% of one-year-olds to 84% of one-year-olds.
Above normal = better · 2021 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−31 pts to the score
Observed
10.4% · 10.2 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 11.1% to 10.4%.
Above normal = worse · 2020 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−30 pts to the score
Observed
80 Years · 2.3 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal6 readings, 2018–2023: rose from 79.5 Years to 80 Years.
Above normal = better · 2021 · 1 fact, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−28 pts to the score
Observed
37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births · 12.4 above the normal line (Dec 2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 40 deaths per 1,000 live births to 37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Above normal = worse · 2019–2021 · 4 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
responsibility level 0.6
responsibility level 0.65
responsibility level 0.75
responsibility level 0.65
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.6 · Fact impact 0.6 · Driver weight 0.82 · Driver → indicator 0.86 · Indicator importance 0.85 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact −0.4 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator 0.45 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.45 · Responsibility 0.4 · Fact impact 0.3 · Driver weight 0.54 · Driver → indicator −0.4 · Indicator importance 0.92 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
11 March 2024 · Protection of Minority Rights
Citizenship Amendment Act rules are notified22 January 2024 · Protection of Minority Rights
Prime Minister leads the Ram temple consecration in Ayodhya16 January 2021 · Vaccine Accessibility
India begins COVID-19 vaccination24 March 2020 · Household Purchasing Power
Modi announces a 21-day national COVID-19 lockdown8 August 2019 · Judicial Independence
UAPA amendment allowing individuals to be designated terrorists receives assent5 August 2019 · Democratic Resilience
Presidential order ends Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 as then appliedHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
31 of 31 linked facts verified, drawing on 31 distinct sources (2014–2024).
Sources include Prime Minister’s Office of India, Press Information Bureau of India, Supreme Court of India, Government of India, Indian Space Research Organisation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, United Nations, National Payments Corporation of India.
Sources (showing 8 of 31)
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 31
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Narendra Modi has been Prime Minister of India since 26 May 2014, sworn for a third consecutive term on 9 June 2024. As of August 2026 he still holds the post. Article 75 of the Constitution makes him head of the Council of Ministers. It does not make him the author of a Supreme Court judgment or of an ISRO landing.
Official carriers used in the graph include PIB (https://www.pib.gov.in/ (opens in a new tab)), India Code (https://www.indiacode.nic.in/ (opens in a new tab)), the PMO, and UN Treaty Collection / UN News.
The sharpest household shock is 8 November 2016 demonetisation. He announced that ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes ceased to be legal tender from midnight. The RBI implemented. Informal cash workers met a demand shock.
Jammu and Kashmir is a completed legal cluster. The 5 August 2019 presidential order ended the state’s special status as then applied. The J&K Reorganisation Act of 9 August split the state into two Union territories. He is not every CRPF unit. He is the prime minister who owned those Union instruments.
Citizenship and finance are dated. The CAA of 12 December 2019 and 2024 rules create a religion-linked fast path for selected non-Muslim migrants from three neighbours. The electoral-bonds scheme of 2018 was a completed Union instrument. The Supreme Court struck it down on 15 February 2024; that row is a court authorship about his government’s scheme, not a conviction.
The three farm laws of September 2020 are a completed parliamentary cluster later repealed. Agnipath is a dated military-recruitment redesign. The IT intermediary rules are a dated speech-and-platform instrument. The new criminal codes received assent on 25 December 2023. The Ram temple consecration is a completed public-religious act by a sitting prime minister. The 24 March 2020 lockdown is a Union disaster-management order. Galwan is a PLA–India clash under his premiership; he did not sit on the ridgeline.
Household delivery files are real. Jan Dhan opened mass no-frills accounts. Ujjwala subsidised LPG connections. Ayushman Bharat is a health-insurance scheme. Jal Jeevan is a tap-water mission. Swachh Bharat is a sanitation campaign. GST replaced a stacked indirect-tax maze. IBC is a dated insolvency code.
Climate and digital files are dated. Paris ratification, the International Solar Alliance, Digital India, and UPI are completed. The COVID vaccination start is a health-ministry rollout. Chandrayaan-3 is an ISRO landing under his premiership. G20 New Delhi is a completed summit. The 2024 oath is a scheduled transfer after a certified election.
The score does not say that every later communal riot is a personal homicide count. It does not say that a Jan Dhan account rebates demonetisation. It does not convert a 2024 NDA arithmetic into a solo majority. Confidence is high on gazettes, presidential orders, and enrolled repeal bills, and medium where state police, RBI cash logistics, and later welfare series sit between a signature and an indicator.
Related people on this page are counterpart presidents and a Galwan adversary: Xi, Trump, Biden, Putin, Zelenskyy, Macron, Merkel, von der Leyen, Netanyahu, Harris.
A prime minister is powerful enough to own those statutes. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of the Supreme Court or of ISRO, and the dossier keeps that line visible.
Article 370, J&K reorganisation, UAPA, and CAA are different texts. Treat them as texts. Treat electoral bonds as a scheme and then as a judgment. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a rally and the alternative to a cartoon.
Narendra Modi's government faces a widening electoral and protest challenge around the Special Intensive Revision of India's voter rolls. Reporting published October 12–14 says more than 130 million names have been removed or flagged during the exercise, while opposition groups have turned Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar into a direct target of protest. BBC coverage framed the confrontation as the largest street challenge of Modi's tenure; that characterization should be attributed to the BBC rather than stated as an uncontested fact.
On October 13, Cockroach Janta Party leaders and other protesters were detained around Jantar Mantar. The Hindu reported that Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde were remanded for five days. Jantar Mantar has also been de-notified as a protest site, and organizers called another march for October 16.
The Modi government and BJP defend the voter-list revision, while the Election Commission says it is removing dead, duplicate, shifted or otherwise ineligible names and provides a route for eligible voters to restore registration. That defence matters: the scale of a clean-up does not itself prove partisan suppression.
The contradiction is political rather than a criminal finding. India presents itself as the world's largest democracy, yet a mass roll revision and restrictions on a prominent protest site are unfolding together. The next evidence should be restoration rates, reasons for deletion, appeal speed and the authorities' handling of the October 16 protest.
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