Eritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
On 9 July 2018 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a five-point Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship in Asmara, declaring that the state of war between the two countries had ended and reopening diplomatic, transport and trade links after two decades of hostility. In the causal graph this event weakens Armed-Conflict Intensity, a driver that strengthens Global deaths from organized violence (UCDP) — an improving welfare path.
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On 9 July 2018 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a five-point Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship in Asmara, declaring that the state of war between the two countries had ended and reopening diplomatic, transport and trade links after two decades of hostility.
Who was responsible
Contribution type and responsibility level for each recorded actor — not sole-author shorthand.
Abiy Ahmed
PersonShared responsibility
responsibility level 0.8 · verified
Abiy Ahmed signed the joint declaration on behalf of Ethiopia. The attribution is limited to this documented peacebuilding act and does not imply responsibility for later regional outcomes.
Isaias Afwerki
PersonShared responsibility
responsibility level 0.7 · verified
Isaias Afwerki signed the joint declaration on behalf of Eritrea. The attribution is limited to this documented peacebuilding act and does not imply responsibility for later regional outcomes.
What changed
Fact → Driver → Indicator. Relationship strength orders the paths; it is not the observed indicator movement.
- FactEritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
- weakensDriverArmed-Conflict Intensity
- strengthensIndicators (5)Global deaths from organized violence (UCDP)
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 9 July 2018 · verified
The declaration formally ended the Ethiopia-Eritrea interstate state of war and began normalization, weakening that interstate conflict at signing. This does not claim durable regional peace or cover later conflicts.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.45 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.9)
Observed
245k deaths per year · 195k above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.42 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.85)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.5)
Observed
11% of primary-school-age children · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
All indicators on this path (5)
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.5)
Observed
37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births · 12.4 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 40 deaths per 1,000 live births to 37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Above normal = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.2 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.4)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
- FactEritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
- strengthensDriverPeacebuilding and Mediation Efforts
- weakensIndicators (5)Global deaths from organized violence (UCDP)
impact weight 0.6 · Effect from 9 July 2018 · verified
Formally ended a 20-year interstate state of war, a strong peacebuilding outcome.
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.36 (weight 0.6 × strength 0.6)
Observed
245k deaths per year · 195k above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
- Better
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.24 (weight 0.6 × strength 0.4)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.6 × strength 0.3)
Observed
11% of primary-school-age children · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalAbove normal = worse
All indicators on this path (5)
Weakens · Relationship strength 0.18 (weight 0.6 × strength 0.3)
Observed
37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births · 12.4 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 40 deaths per 1,000 live births to 37.4 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Above normal = worse
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.15 (weight 0.6 × strength 0.25)
Observed
0.55 index score (0-1) · 0.26 below the normal line (2024)
Worse than normalAbove normal = better
- FactEritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
- weakensDriverForced-Displacement Scale
- strengthensIndicators (2)People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
impact weight 0.35 · Effect from 9 July 2018 · verified
A completed peace declaration reduced expected new displacement on the Eritrea–Ethiopia border relative to a frozen war.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.28 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.8)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
- Better
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.16 (weight 0.35 × strength 0.46)
Observed
10.4% · 10.2 above the normal line (2024)
Worse than normal7 readings, 2018–2024: fell from 11.1% to 10.4%.
Above normal = worse
All driver paths (4)
- FactEritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
- strengthensDriverHumanitarian Access
- strengthensIndicatorPeople Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (IDMC)
impact weight 0.5 · Effect from 9 July 2018 · verified
Ending a frozen border war reopened family, trade, and air links, a completed humanitarian-access gain while it lasted.
Strengthens · Relationship strength 0.25 (weight 0.5 × strength 0.5)
Observed
69M people (stock, end-of-year) · 28M above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2023–2025: rose from 68M people (stock, end-of-year) to 69M people (stock, end-of-year).
Above normal = worse
Evidence
The sources behind this fact and its verification state.
- 1.Reuters — Ethiopia and Eritrea sign peace dealReuters · High credibility · verified
- 2.Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia — swearing-in of Abiy Ahmed, 2 April 2018Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia · High credibility · verified
- 3.Security Council Press Statement on Signing of Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and EthiopiaUnited Nations · High credibility · verified
- 4.2018 Eritrea–Ethiopia summitWikipedia · Medium credibility · verified
Causal path
How this event connects to drivers and indicators in the graph.
- Actors (2)Abiy Ahmed
- contributed toFactEritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018)
- weakensDrivers (4)Armed-Conflict Intensity
- strengthensIndicatorGlobal deaths from organized violence (UCDP)
Cite this page
Factrail. (2026). Eritrea and Ethiopia sign Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship (2018). Factrail. https://factrail.ai/facts/sec-eritrea-ethiopia-peace-declaration-2018
https://factrail.ai/facts/sec-eritrea-ethiopia-peace-declaration-2018
Accessed 15 October 2026.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed
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