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Prabowo Subianto

Prabowo Subianto

-100

Net harmfulFormula-derived score

As of August 2026 he remains president. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Prabowo says Indonesia will go ahead with a B50 biodiesel blend this year” (2026). The largest positive offset is “Prabowo meets Xi Jinping in Beijing on his first presidential overseas visit” (2024).

Top harm

Prabowo says Indonesia will go ahead with a B50 biodiesel blend this year

−57 pts

Top offset

Prabowo meets Xi Jinping in Beijing on his first presidential overseas visit

+14 pts

Gerindra nationalist-populismmilitary-developmental statecraftJokowi-era resource nationalism treated as compatible with a bloated Red-and-White cabinet and unresolved 1998 Komnas HAM files

Impact

Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.

Biggest harms

Lowers the score

14 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Biggest offsets

Raises the score

1 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.

Editorial assessment (context, not the score)

The file after 1998 is not a civic saint and not a single meals footnote. The heaviest documented costs are the 1997–98 activist-abduction cluster as a Komnas HAM finding and TNI dismissal he denies as a criminal verdict, Kopassus-era East Timor allegations that must not be collapsed into a unique 1999 command finding, a 2000-era US visa ban, the 2023 Constitutional Court age-rule that seated Gibran, Jokowi-machine weather on 14 February 2024, a bloated Red-and-White cabinet, TNI-law expansion into civilian posts, Papua operations with displacement, IKN fiscal continuation, a 37 percent defence-budget jump, MBG poisoning clusters, and the June 2026 arrest of the meals-agency head. Those rest on Komnas HAM language, gazettes, KPU tallies, and wires. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus the 2024 oath, meals launch, nickel continuity, China visit, BRICS, Danantara, and a domestic-workers statute; this paragraph is not the score.

The offsets are also dated: Defence Minister 2019, first-round and KPU certification, inauguration, 71-trillion meals ceiling, BGN design, energy-blend go-ahead, ASEAN visits, and SOE consolidation. Jokowi, KPU, DPR, TNI, and BGN share several files.

He does not sit as Komnas HAM and he does not write an MK age-rule. Confidence is high on the oath, KPU decree, TNI-law vote, and Reuters-dated meals and arrest rows, and medium where TNI units, BGN kitchens, and later CPI sit between a signature and a welfare indicator.

Indicators affected

Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.

Accountability & contradictions

Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.

Responsibility

What could change this assessment

  • 2 linked facts have no assessed welfare direction yet.
  • Lifetime coverage has not been assessed: the record reflects stored facts only (1998–2026).

Causal path

Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.

  1. PersonPrabowo Subianto
  2. FactPrabowo says Indonesia will go ahead with a B50 biodiesel blend this year
  3. DriverEnergy Security
  4. IndicatorInability to keep home adequately warm
−57 pts

Contribution size 0.6 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact 0.6 · Driver weight 0.85 · Driver → indicator 0.6 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonPrabowo Subianto
  2. FactIndonesia dishes out the first free nutritious meals targeting 83 million people
  3. DriverHousehold Purchasing Power
  4. IndicatorGlobal Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
−42 pts

Contribution size 0.75 · Responsibility 0.8 · Fact impact 0.65 · Driver weight 0.96 · Driver → indicator −0.4 · Indicator importance 0.9 · Deviation factor 2.3 · Confidence 1

  1. PersonPrabowo Subianto
  2. FactPrabowo meets Xi Jinping in Beijing on his first presidential overseas visit
  3. DriverRenewable capacity buildout
  4. IndicatorRenewable share of global electricity generation
+14 pts

Contribution size 0.6 · Responsibility 0.65 · Fact impact 0.4 · Driver weight 0.3 · Driver → indicator 0.9 · Indicator importance 0.85 · Deviation factor 3 · Confidence 1

Timeline

The most relevant dated facts, newest first.

  1. 30 March 2026 · Energy Security

    Prabowo says Indonesia will go ahead with a B50 biodiesel blend this year
    −57 pts

  2. 19 September 2025 · Health system capacity stress

    Mass food-poisoning clusters hit students on Prabowo’s free-meals programme
    −25 pts

  3. 29 May 2025 · Forced-Displacement Scale

    HRW documents renewed Papua fighting and civilian risk under Operation Habema
    −33 pts

  4. 26 May 2025 · Democratic Resilience

    Thousands of active soldiers hold civilian posts under Prabowo’s administration
    −26 pts

  5. 20 March 2025 · Democratic Resilience

    Parliament passes TNI-law revisions expanding military posts in civilian government
    −36 pts

  6. 6 January 2025 · Household Purchasing Power

    Indonesia dishes out the first free nutritious meals targeting 83 million people
    −42 pts

Evidence & methodology

How the record is sourced and how the score is derived.

31 of 31 linked facts verified, drawing on 12 distinct sources (1998–2026).

Sources include ANTARA, Ministry of State Secretariat of Indonesia, Ministry of Defense of Indonesia, BPK / State Gazette of Indonesia, General Elections Commission of Indonesia, Constitutional Court of Indonesia, Komnas HAM.

Sources (showing 8 of 12)

  1. 1.State Secretariat — presidential and BGN public replies on MBG food-safety incidentsMinistry of State Secretariat of Indonesia
  2. 2.Ministry of Defense — later public record of Prabowo’s US travel as Defence Minister after the long banMinistry of Defense of Indonesia
  3. 3.KPU — 14 February 2024 presidential election administrationGeneral Elections Commission of Indonesia
  4. 4.Komnas HAM — public record of the 1997–98 activist-abduction investigationsKomnas HAM
  5. 5.ANTARA — Indonesia pledges no job cuts as SOEs shrink to 250, 28 June 2026ANTARA
  6. 6.ANTARA — Prabowo allocates Rp48.8 trillion for continuity of IKN development, 21 January 2025ANTARA
  7. 7.ANTARA — Prabowo witnesses Indonesia-China business deals worth $10 billion, 10 November 2024ANTARA
  8. 8.State Secretariat — Prabowo and Gibran inaugurated as president and vice president, 20 October 2024Ministry of State Secretariat of Indonesia

The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.

By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 12

Expert analysis

An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.

The power he actually held

Prabowo Subianto has been president of Indonesia since 20 October 2024. A president appoints Cabinet and commands the TNI. He does not write a Komnas HAM report, a Constitutional Court age-rule, or a Chinese SOE nickel smelter. As of August 2026 he remains in office.

That limit is the first fact about his power. The second is that a 1998 abduction file is stored as a Komnas HAM finding, a TNI honorary-council dismissal, and his denial — not as a completed civilian criminal verdict unless a court so holds.

What went wrong, and what is proven

The sharpest documented costs that are dated and named are 1998 activist abductions while he commanded Kopassus — Komnas HAM findings and a TNI dismissal sit beside his denial — and Kopassus-era East Timor allegations around the 1999 referendum week; he was already dismissed in 1998 and was not unique commander of 1999 militia violence. The US visa ban is a completed US entry bar, later lifted when he was Defence Minister.

The 16 October 2023 Constitutional Court age-rule seated Gibran; the Court wrote it; Anwar Usman later drew an ethics finding. Election-day Jokowi-machine weather is stored separately from a certified first-round. An honorary four-star on 28 February 2024 is Jokowi’s gazette, not a 1998 rebate.

The Red-and-White cabinet bloated ministries. TNI-law revision, 20 March 2025 and military civilian posts reopen dual-function weather. Papua operations under his presidency displaced civilians according to Human Rights Watch; TNI fired. IKN continuation is a dated fiscal child of Jokowi’s capital. Defence spending in the 2026 budget jumped 37 percent.

What improved, and how far

The 23 October 2019 Defence Minister appointment is a completed Jokowi-era office. The 14 February 2024 first-round and 20 March 2024 KPU certification are completed contest instruments. The 20 October 2024 oath starts the term. A 71-trillion meals ceiling in the 2025 budget is a dated deficit-limit print. BGN design is Jokowi’s Perpres for his meals pledge. Meals launch, 6 January 2025 is a completed kitchen-day, remaining poisoning as a neighbour. BRICS membership is a completed accession. China visit deals and nickel HPAL continuity are dated resource-industrial instruments; Chinese firms still smelt. Danantara and later SOE streamlining are dated state-asset instruments. B50 go-ahead is a dated energy-blend act. Domestic-workers statute is a completed DPR law. Malaysia state visit and Timor-Leste ASEAN accession week are dated foreign-policy continuity, remaining East Timor history named.

Shared responsibility, and what the score does not say

It does not convert a Komnas HAM finding into a civilian conviction. It does not rebate meals against 1998. Confidence is high on KPU, gazettes, and the TNI-law vote, and medium where BGN kitchens, TNI squads, and later CPI sit between a signature and a welfare indicator.

Related people are Jokowi, Xi, Modi, Lula, Biden, Trump, Albanese, Lai, Guterres, von der Leyen, Macron, and Ruto.

Official carriers include the State Secretariat (https://www.setneg.go.id/ (opens in a new tab)), KPU (https://www.kpu.go.id/ (opens in a new tab)), Komnas HAM (https://www.komnasham.go.id/ (opens in a new tab)), and the Defence Ministry (https://www.kemhan.go.id/ (opens in a new tab)). Independent carriers include Reuters, AP, The Diplomat, and Human Rights Watch.

A president is powerful enough to own those meals and that TNI law. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of a Komnas HAM report or of a Chinese smelter, and the catalog keeps that line visible. Keep 21 May 1998 off a 6 January 2025 tray. Keep 16 October 2023 off a KPU certificate. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a grandfather halo and the alternative to a cartoon.

The 2019 defence oath, the 2024 presidential oath, and a 2025 kitchen are different dates. Treat them as texts. A 2026 meals-agency arrest is not a finding that the 6 January launch never happened. He is still president in August 2026. Jokowi, Gibran, KPU, Komnas HAM, and BGN remain on the file so a brand cannot swallow them.

Questions

Is Prabowo Subianto under sanctions?

Yes. 6 January 2025: Brazil announces Indonesia’s full BRICS membership under Prabowo (Ministry of State Secretariat of Indonesia). 1 June 2000: The United States denies Prabowo a visa under torture-convention entry rules (Ministry of Defense of Indonesia).

Does Prabowo Subianto face an ICC warrant or criminal charges?

26 May 2025: Thousands of active soldiers hold civilian posts under Prabowo’s administration. 16 October 2023: The Constitutional Court creates an age exception that lets Gibran run as Prabowo’s vice president.

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