Net harmfulFormula-derived score
As of August 2026 he remains prime minister. The largest negative contribution to the formula-derived score is “Albanese and Victoria sign a Rewiring the Nation grid deal” (2022). The largest positive offset is “The government releases a Future Gas Strategy that names new supply” (2024).
Biggest harms and offsets: signed contributions to the formula-derived score, ranked by size.
via Energy Security → Inability to keep home adequately warm
19 October 2022 · Direct contribution
via Democratic Resilience → Having a say in government
12 December 2022 · Direct contribution
via Democratic Resilience → Having a say in government
25 January 2024 · Direct contribution
15 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
via Energy Security → Inability to keep home adequately warm
9 May 2024 · Direct contribution
via Renewable capacity buildout → Renewable share of global electricity generation
18 September 2025 · Direct contribution
via Inflationary Pressure → Global Consumer Price Inflation (annual %)
31 December 2022 · Direct contribution
4 more ranked below in Timeline and Related.
The file after 2022 is not a civic saint and not a single Voice footnote. The heaviest documented costs are the 14 October 2023 referendum defeat, record 2022–23 net overseas migration against housing, December 2022 CPI at 7.8 percent, a January 2024 Stage 3 rewrite after a legislated promise, a Qatar-capacity refusal, a Future Gas Strategy that names new supply, CFMEU administration, a North West Shelf extension toward 2070, 2024–25 migration still about 306,000, a faster-approvals EPBC tranche, and an Accord miss print in 2026. Those rest on AEC writs, ABS series, legislation.gov.au texts, and ministerial gazettes. The live composite is formula output from those paths plus the Climate Change Act, AUKUS, Safeguard, HAFF, child care, IR statutes, a 2025 re-election, and a 62–70 percent 2035 target; this paragraph is not the score.
The offsets are also dated: 21 May and 23 May 2022, 13 September 2022 climate assent, San Diego 13 March 2023, NACC, Robodebt’s completed royal-commission report, and 3 May 2025. Chalmers, Bowen, Watt, King, Parliament, and the Governor-General share several files.
He does not sit as the High Court and he does not write a state DA. Confidence is high on AEC certificates and enrolled Acts, and medium where lag, state planning, and later CPI or dwelling series sit between a Cabinet choice and a welfare indicator.
Sorted by the size of this person’s signed contribution. The observed state is the indicator’s own reading, not this person’s doing.
−130 pts to the score
Observed
5.8 annual % change in CPI · 2.3 above the normal line (Dec 2024)
Better than normal5 readings, 2020–2024: rose from 3.3 annual % change in CPI to 5.8 annual % change in CPI.
Moving normal line · 2022–2026 · 9 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor 3
−110 pts to the score
Observed
29.8% of population aged 16-65 years · 8.13 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normalTwo readings: 30.2% of population aged 16-65 years (2021) and 29.8% of population aged 16-65 years (2023).
Above normal = better · 2022–2025 · 9 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
+85 pts to the score
Observed
30% of electricity generation · 11 above the normal line (2023)
Better than normal6 readings, 2000–2023: rose from 18.9% of electricity generation to 30% of electricity generation.
Above normal = better · 2022–2026 · 8 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor 3
−77 pts to the score
Observed
91.6% of population · 8.4 below the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal4 readings, 2020–2023: rose from 90.4% of population to 91.6% of population.
Above normal = better · 2022–2025 · 5 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
+53 pts to the score
Observed
32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) · 27.9 above the normal line (2023)
Worse than normal3 readings, 2021–2023: fell from 33.2 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted) to 32.9 micrograms per cubic metre (annual mean, population-weighted).
Above normal = worse · 2022–2026 · 8 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
−52 pts to the score
Observed
7.97% of population aged 16 years or over · 5.2 above the normal line (2025)
Worse than normal8 readings, 2018–2025: rose from 7.77% of population aged 16 years or over to 7.97% of population aged 16 years or over.
Above normal = worse · 2022–2025 · 4 facts, full confidence · formula deviation factor −3
Claims against the record, the type of responsibility, and what is disputed.
Responsibility
responsibility level 0.7
responsibility level 0.7
responsibility level 0.75
responsibility level 0.7
What could change this assessment
Person → Fact → Driver → Indicator. Select a path to inspect its factors; the full network opens on demand.
Contribution size 0.65 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact 0.45 · Driver weight 1 · Driver → indicator 0.6 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.7 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact 0.7 · Driver weight 0.56 · Driver → indicator 0.7 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
Contribution size 0.65 · Responsibility 0.7 · Fact impact 0.4 · Driver weight 0.85 · Driver → indicator 0.6 · Indicator importance 0.8 · Deviation factor −3 · Confidence 1
The most relevant dated facts, newest first.
18 September 2025 · Renewable-Energy Deployment
Albanese announces a 2035 emissions target of 62 to 70 percent9 May 2024 · Fossil-Fuel Dependence
The government releases a Future Gas Strategy that names new supply25 January 2024 · Democratic Resilience
Albanese announces a rewrite of the legislated Stage 3 tax cuts7 July 2023 · Democratic Resilience
The Robodebt Royal Commission delivers its final report12 December 2022 · Democratic Resilience
The National Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2022 receives Royal Assent19 October 2022 · Renewable-Energy Deployment
Albanese and Victoria sign a Rewiring the Nation grid dealHow the record is sourced and how the score is derived.
30 of 30 linked facts verified, drawing on 30 distinct sources (2022–2026).
Sources include National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Minister for the Environment and Water, Prime Minister of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Electoral Commission, Federal Register of Legislation, Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Sources (showing 8 of 30)
The score is formula-derived (Factrail formula v1, version 1.0.0), not an editorial verdict. Read the methodology.
By the Factrail desk · Method: how we source and score · Last reviewed · Sources: 30
An excerpt; the full analysis opens on request.
Anthony Albanese has been Prime Minister of Australia since 23 May 2022. Parliament enacts. The Governor-General assents. The AEC (https://www.aec.gov.au/ (opens in a new tab)) certifies. He is the political principal, not every EPBC desk officer or US submarine welder.
As of August 2026 he remains in office after a 3 May 2025 re-election.
The sharpest documented costs that are dated and named are the Voice referendum, 14 October 2023 — a completed AEC defeat with about 60 percent No, remaining Closing-the-Gap series as other rows — and record net overseas migration, 2022–23 against housing. December 2022 CPI at 7.8 percent is a completed inflation print he owned as PM, not a unique RBA board vote. Stage 3 rewrite, 25 January 2024 is a completed broken-promise announcement later enrolled as the Cost of Living Tax Cuts Act. Qatar extra capacity refused, July 2023 is a completed bilateral-rights decision. Future Gas Strategy, 9 May 2024 names new supply through the transition. CFMEU administration, 23 August 2024 is a completed statutory takeover. North West Shelf final EPBC approval, 12 September 2025 extends Australia’s largest gas plant toward 2070. NOM 2024–25 still about 306,000 is a completed ABS year. EPBC tranche, 20 February 2026 is the dated faster-and-flexible process switch-on. Housing Accord miss print, August 2026 is a completed NHSAC delay, remaining state approvals as neighbours. Gaza House motion, 16 October 2023 polarised a domestic file he did not author in Gaza.
The 21 May 2022 election and 23 May 2022 oath are completed rotations. The Climate Change Act 2022 received Royal Assent on 13 September 2022 and commenced 14 September (https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2022A00037/2023-04-12 (opens in a new tab)). Rewiring the Nation’s Victorian deal, 19 October 2022 is a completed concessional-finance instrument. Cheaper Child Care assent, 29 November 2022 and Secure Jobs, Better Pay, 6 December 2022 are enrolled. NACC assent, 12 December 2022 is a completed integrity statute. Bali with Xi, 15 November 2022 is a completed thaw meeting. AUKUS optimal pathway, 13 March 2023 is a completed joint statement, remaining US yards as neighbours. Safeguard Mechanism crediting, 11 April 2023 is a completed NGER amendment. HAFF, 28 September 2023 is a completed $10 billion fund. Same job, same pay, 14 December 2023 is enrolled labour-hire law. Paid parental leave expansion, 20 March 2024 is a completed statute. NDIS Back on Track, 5 September 2024 is a dated repair, remaining cost blowout as neighbour. Capacity Investment Scheme Act, 20 February 2025 writes 23 GW / 9 GW floors into the Climate Change Act. The 3 May 2025 election is a completed second term. The 2035 target, 18 September 2025 is a completed 62–70 percent announcement.
The score does not say that every No vote is a unique later Closing-the-Gap coefficient. It does not say that a climate Act rebates a gas-plant extension. It does not convert a US submarine print into an Australian oath. Confidence is high on AEC certificates and legislation.gov.au texts, and medium where states, the RBA, Home Affairs, and later series sit between Cabinet and a welfare indicator.
Related people are counterpart rulers who actually shared files: Morrison, Starmer, Biden, Trump, Xi, Modi, Macron, von der Leyen, Prabowo, Lai, Guterres, Carney, Zelenskyy.
Official carriers include pm.gov.au, legislation.gov.au, aec.gov.au, and contemporaneous Reuters, AP, and ABC.
A prime minister is powerful enough to own those Cabinet choices. He is not powerful enough to be the unique author of a High Court holding or a state housing approval, and the dossier keeps that line visible. Keep 14 October 2023 off a 2035 target. Keep San Diego off a Voice writ. If those distinctions feel pedantic, they are the alternative to a Powering-Australia halo and the alternative to a cartoon.
The 2022 oath, the 2023 Voice, and the 2025 landslide are different dates. Treat them as texts. He is still prime minister in August 2026. AEC, ABS, Watt, and the Governor-General remain on the file so a brand cannot swallow them.
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